Friday, March 31, 2006
The Meta Search Engines: A Web Searcher's Best Friends
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Tuesday, March 28, 2006
Focus! Focus! Focus!
The success of your online business relies on you making sales, actually selling your product or service to paying customers. The more the better. To get those sales you need to communicate well with your potential customers and make a good sales pitch. What you say and how you say it are therefore very important and can make the difference between your business succeeding or failing.
When you sell your products and services online, you communicate largely through text. What you say in that text directly influences the customer's decision to either buy or not buy your product, in the same way that a real-world sales conversation would. Your potential customer wants to hear interesting and important information that will help them make that decision. That decision begins from the moment they arrive at your website.
Lets imagine you are looking to buy a particular product. You learn that the product is available on two different websites. You visit each site and read their text.
This is what Site A says to you in effect:
* let us tell you about us,
* here's some very basic product details we feel we should give you,
* here's an inadequate photo of the product we had lying around,
* this is why we are in business and why we think we are great,
* yeah we know we've made it difficult for you to use our site. We didn't want to make the effort to find out what our customers want,
* this is where we are located (usually accompanied by a picture of their building).
Site B says:
* yes we sell the product you are looking for. here it is...,
* let us tell you all about it,
* here's some good reasons why you should buy it immediately,
* here's some good reasons why you should buy from us (and not our competitors),
* Its easy for you to buy from us. Just do this...,
* Let us know if we can serve you better or answer any questions you may have.
Which one is going to get the sale? Obviously Site B will get the sale. Why? Because they clearly show they understand their customers. They:
Focus on their customers!
Focus on their needs!
Focus on their priorities!
They provide information that is useful to you in making your buying decision. They are focused on you the customer, not themselves. Their text is all about "you". They work hard to ensure all this and demonstrate it on their website. They make it very easy to interact with them and that also gives you the impression they will be very easy to deal with too.
Site A, on the otherhand, may indeed have some useful information on their webpage but its not there in quantity and for your benefit. It can of course be useful to know where a company is located. But, if they are going on about it or its the first thing you see on arrival, its more likely there to prop-up their over inflated ego and demonstrate how successful they think they are. Their focus is directed entirely on themselves. You are not their number 1 priority, they are! Don't they realise that customers can read between the lines and spot this easily?
In addition to focusing on their customers, there's also something else that Site B does very well. Its not as easy to spot but has a dramatic effect on their sales. Its the way they deliver their information. They know its vital to keep your attention and interest. If they lose it for a second they may lose it forever.
They've noticed that other sites write paragraphs of text that grab your interest in one sentence and lose it in the next, because the information provided is not relevant or important to you at that point. It should either be removed or replaced. So they have made a conscious effort to hold your interest at all times throughout a paragraph or piece of text. Their paragraphs say exactly what you want to know and in the order you want to know it. They hold your interest throughout with useful and valuable information. They don't tolerate any irrelevant or unimportant information whatsoever.
This is the ideal situation for your company to be in. To have customers who are keen to listen to what you have to say and trust what you say. They know you are focused on them, their needs and their priorities. They are far more likely to listen to your recommendations and make purchases based on them. You will build stronger, equally beneficial and more rewarding relationships with them. Those relationships will be hard to break by your competitors, especially if you keep that focus and continuously improve your offers, products and service.
Questions to ask?
* Are you focused on your customers?
* Are you providing the right information at the right times?
* Do you keep their attention and interest at all times?
* Do you distract them at anytime?
* Are you getting maximum sales from your website?
Action to take on your website:
* Concentrate on selling more products.
* Concentrate on selling them well.
* Remove any distracting, confusing or irelevant text.
* Try to keep the readers interest continuously.
Remember: Focus on your customers! Focus on their needs! Focus on their priorities!
Good luck!
When you sell your products and services online, you communicate largely through text. What you say in that text directly influences the customer's decision to either buy or not buy your product, in the same way that a real-world sales conversation would. Your potential customer wants to hear interesting and important information that will help them make that decision. That decision begins from the moment they arrive at your website.
Lets imagine you are looking to buy a particular product. You learn that the product is available on two different websites. You visit each site and read their text.
This is what Site A says to you in effect:
* let us tell you about us,
* here's some very basic product details we feel we should give you,
* here's an inadequate photo of the product we had lying around,
* this is why we are in business and why we think we are great,
* yeah we know we've made it difficult for you to use our site. We didn't want to make the effort to find out what our customers want,
* this is where we are located (usually accompanied by a picture of their building).
Site B says:
* yes we sell the product you are looking for. here it is...,
* let us tell you all about it,
* here's some good reasons why you should buy it immediately,
* here's some good reasons why you should buy from us (and not our competitors),
* Its easy for you to buy from us. Just do this...,
* Let us know if we can serve you better or answer any questions you may have.
Which one is going to get the sale? Obviously Site B will get the sale. Why? Because they clearly show they understand their customers. They:
Focus on their customers!
Focus on their needs!
Focus on their priorities!
They provide information that is useful to you in making your buying decision. They are focused on you the customer, not themselves. Their text is all about "you". They work hard to ensure all this and demonstrate it on their website. They make it very easy to interact with them and that also gives you the impression they will be very easy to deal with too.
Site A, on the otherhand, may indeed have some useful information on their webpage but its not there in quantity and for your benefit. It can of course be useful to know where a company is located. But, if they are going on about it or its the first thing you see on arrival, its more likely there to prop-up their over inflated ego and demonstrate how successful they think they are. Their focus is directed entirely on themselves. You are not their number 1 priority, they are! Don't they realise that customers can read between the lines and spot this easily?
In addition to focusing on their customers, there's also something else that Site B does very well. Its not as easy to spot but has a dramatic effect on their sales. Its the way they deliver their information. They know its vital to keep your attention and interest. If they lose it for a second they may lose it forever.
They've noticed that other sites write paragraphs of text that grab your interest in one sentence and lose it in the next, because the information provided is not relevant or important to you at that point. It should either be removed or replaced. So they have made a conscious effort to hold your interest at all times throughout a paragraph or piece of text. Their paragraphs say exactly what you want to know and in the order you want to know it. They hold your interest throughout with useful and valuable information. They don't tolerate any irrelevant or unimportant information whatsoever.
This is the ideal situation for your company to be in. To have customers who are keen to listen to what you have to say and trust what you say. They know you are focused on them, their needs and their priorities. They are far more likely to listen to your recommendations and make purchases based on them. You will build stronger, equally beneficial and more rewarding relationships with them. Those relationships will be hard to break by your competitors, especially if you keep that focus and continuously improve your offers, products and service.
Questions to ask?
* Are you focused on your customers?
* Are you providing the right information at the right times?
* Do you keep their attention and interest at all times?
* Do you distract them at anytime?
* Are you getting maximum sales from your website?
Action to take on your website:
* Concentrate on selling more products.
* Concentrate on selling them well.
* Remove any distracting, confusing or irelevant text.
* Try to keep the readers interest continuously.
Remember: Focus on your customers! Focus on their needs! Focus on their priorities!
Good luck!
Monday, March 27, 2006
Writing Effective Emails
Sometimes email messages can get quite long, especially when you quote much of the material that has been sent in previous emails. Also, emails often get long if you have a lot to say or you need to give a comprehensive overview of a particular business situation.
Most people tend to find that the letters and emails they receive that are short are the ones they responded to most positively and had the best feelings about. Long letters do get a positive response — however, almost invariably, long communications are only given a positive rating if we have a very close and warm relationship with the person who has written to us. We rarely feel positive towards acquaintances and people we do not know, who send us long letters or emails. This has important implications for people using email in business. The vast majority of your emails at work are going to be sent to people you do not know or have only the slimmest of relationships with. Hence anything other than a short email is likely to lead towards a negative feeling in your reader. Play safe; keep it short!
This is all very well in theory, of course, but in practice, particularly at work, you need to include a lot of material. The answer is to treat the email as though it were a covering letter. Then attach the main text as a separate word processor document. All email programs can attach files to them, yet vast numbers of emails are sent without using this facility. The advantage of putting your main material in an attachment is that your recipient immediately views your message in a positive light because it is short and to the point. You should summarise the content of the attachment in a sentence or two — in that way your reader can gain all they need to know, without having to open the attached file. However, if they need more depth you have provided it for them.
One technique you can use for shortening your email is to write the main message in your word processing software, with all the detail you need. Then take a break, do something else and later on, read through your text. Now try to summarise it in a few sentences – that summary should be the main part of your email. Trying to summarise something you have just written is difficult as all the detail will still be in your mind. That’s why taking a break can help you as you leave your mind uncluttered and make summary writing much easier. Your summary email, together with the word processor document as an attachment is much more likely to please your recipient. This means there is considerable value in taking time to construct your email properly, rather than just dashing something off.
Another way in which you can be sure of keeping emails short is to avoid ‘quoting’ vast amounts of previous emails. One of the benefits of the ‘reply’ button on email programs is that you can quote the previous email. In this way the recipient can easily see what you are responding to. However, since many emails go back and forth between various people, the message can quickly become very long indeed — even though most of it is material from previous messages. The answer to solving this is to only quote what you need to send someone in order to make your reply understandable. By all means, press the ‘reply’ button to quote the original email, but then go through the quoted text and delete everything that is irrelevant to what you are going to write about. Doing so is seeing the message from your reader’s viewpoint — they don’t want to wade through the original text (their own!) just to see which point you are commenting on. It is much easier from their viewpoint if your reply is clear. In other words, only use selective quoting — not wholesale quoting of emails as is the most common practice.
An additional reason why some emails are so long is because the author is trying to cover various topics. They are almost ‘brain dumping’ everything they can think of that is important or relevant to the reader. Meanwhile, the poor recipient has to work their way through this mess to try and find out what is important. Good communication, particularly to people we don’t know, is focused communication. That means, in essence, that each email should be about one topic and one topic only. A hint to this is given in the email software itself where you have to type a ‘subject’ for your email.
If your emails are about more than one subject – stop! Each email should only be about one subject. Your recipient will react far more positively if you sent four separate short emails about four subjects than trying to cram all the material into one, inevitably longer message. Also, when these separate messages get replied to, the quoted material is shorter. Hence, think always, one message — one email.
Most people tend to find that the letters and emails they receive that are short are the ones they responded to most positively and had the best feelings about. Long letters do get a positive response — however, almost invariably, long communications are only given a positive rating if we have a very close and warm relationship with the person who has written to us. We rarely feel positive towards acquaintances and people we do not know, who send us long letters or emails. This has important implications for people using email in business. The vast majority of your emails at work are going to be sent to people you do not know or have only the slimmest of relationships with. Hence anything other than a short email is likely to lead towards a negative feeling in your reader. Play safe; keep it short!
This is all very well in theory, of course, but in practice, particularly at work, you need to include a lot of material. The answer is to treat the email as though it were a covering letter. Then attach the main text as a separate word processor document. All email programs can attach files to them, yet vast numbers of emails are sent without using this facility. The advantage of putting your main material in an attachment is that your recipient immediately views your message in a positive light because it is short and to the point. You should summarise the content of the attachment in a sentence or two — in that way your reader can gain all they need to know, without having to open the attached file. However, if they need more depth you have provided it for them.
One technique you can use for shortening your email is to write the main message in your word processing software, with all the detail you need. Then take a break, do something else and later on, read through your text. Now try to summarise it in a few sentences – that summary should be the main part of your email. Trying to summarise something you have just written is difficult as all the detail will still be in your mind. That’s why taking a break can help you as you leave your mind uncluttered and make summary writing much easier. Your summary email, together with the word processor document as an attachment is much more likely to please your recipient. This means there is considerable value in taking time to construct your email properly, rather than just dashing something off.
Another way in which you can be sure of keeping emails short is to avoid ‘quoting’ vast amounts of previous emails. One of the benefits of the ‘reply’ button on email programs is that you can quote the previous email. In this way the recipient can easily see what you are responding to. However, since many emails go back and forth between various people, the message can quickly become very long indeed — even though most of it is material from previous messages. The answer to solving this is to only quote what you need to send someone in order to make your reply understandable. By all means, press the ‘reply’ button to quote the original email, but then go through the quoted text and delete everything that is irrelevant to what you are going to write about. Doing so is seeing the message from your reader’s viewpoint — they don’t want to wade through the original text (their own!) just to see which point you are commenting on. It is much easier from their viewpoint if your reply is clear. In other words, only use selective quoting — not wholesale quoting of emails as is the most common practice.
An additional reason why some emails are so long is because the author is trying to cover various topics. They are almost ‘brain dumping’ everything they can think of that is important or relevant to the reader. Meanwhile, the poor recipient has to work their way through this mess to try and find out what is important. Good communication, particularly to people we don’t know, is focused communication. That means, in essence, that each email should be about one topic and one topic only. A hint to this is given in the email software itself where you have to type a ‘subject’ for your email.
If your emails are about more than one subject – stop! Each email should only be about one subject. Your recipient will react far more positively if you sent four separate short emails about four subjects than trying to cram all the material into one, inevitably longer message. Also, when these separate messages get replied to, the quoted material is shorter. Hence, think always, one message — one email.
Saturday, March 25, 2006
Top Things You Must Realize When Searching
For the uninitiated, searching for web pages can seem a slow, obscure process. Unless you have a high-speed Internet connection, web pages may seem to take days to load. And the searching itself – you have to admit it looks weird typing in bunches of plus signs, asterisks, parenthesis, and other funny symbols and operators to find what you want.
To help you in this process and show that you are not, I’ve compiled a top five list of things you must realize when searching the web for information. No pencils will fly, no drums will roll, but you just might learn something.
5. Search Engines Have to Make Money
Before you grumble over the growing number of advertisements and sponsored links that appear in search engine results page, remember that most search engines are free. You’re not paying anything for a very costly service. Thus, these sites have to earn income somehow to stay afloat (computing power and bandwidth isn’t cheap!) So, to put it bluntly… live with it.
(Yes, I know some types of advertising are much more obtrusive than others. Popup ads, dancing animations, and other larger advertisements may make it harder to use some search engines that support these types of ads. If you don’t like it, vote with your mouse clicks and move to another search engine).
4. Sites Go Down
Worse yet, you’ve entered in your perfect search query, looked at the results page, and the first site you see no longer exists!
The Internet changes all the time. Unfortunately, search engines and directories are not able to constantly query every site on the Internet to see if they are still online. Occasionally (in other words, probably frequently) you will find links to web sites that no longer exist. It is just a part of life. Especially with the dot-com bust, many web site owners can no longer afford to host free resources. If they could not convert their traffic to paying customers, they just took their sites down
So when you find a link that is dead, don’t pump your fist in anger … just go back to the results page and move along. Or, better yet, if you’re using a search engine that caches pages, such as Google, just look at the cached version of the now defunct pages and find the information contained therein. It’s like stepping through a time machine!
3. Your Web Browser Will Crash
On a related note, not only do web sites go down – but so may your web browser. Sometimes it will be due to visiting a multimedia-intensive web site. Sometimes it will seem to happen for no reason. But it will happen, and when it does, don’t go blaming yourself saying that you did something wrong.
Web browsers, like just about any other type of computer software program available on the market, are not infallible. They can and usually do contain bugs. These may predictably rear their ugly heads when visiting sites containing a lot of multimedia and advanced interactive elements, or they may appear completely at random.
If your web browser crashes, do what I do. Just restart it. Don’t say you did something wrong. Don’t think that you must be so bad with computers that you crashed the Internet. Just restart your browser, and if you have to restart your computer to do so, then do it as well. Most likely the crash is not your fault.
2. The Internet Can Be Slow
No matter how fast your on-ramp to the Internet may be, there will be times where it seems to take forever to load a web page. This is just the nature of the beast.
As the Internet is a loosely connected network, if certain connections go down, computers may not always be able to route information via other networks. Thus access speed will suffer and your web browser will start to crawl. If this seems to be happening often, step away from the computer, go outside and take a nice, long walk (unless it’s 30 degrees below). You can run your search another time when the speed is back to normal.
And the #1 thing you must realize when searching…
1. The Best Result Just May Be On Page 10
Most people only look through the first page of search engine or directory results, usually the top ten listings. Others may visit the second page, but relatively very few people venture to the higher numbered pages.
This is a shame – sometimes the best results to a search engine query are not in the first ten listings as they may only contain links to commercially driven sites or sites run by web owners who know how to manipulate listings. In some cases web sites containing perfectly good information may not be listed in the top 10, 20, 50, or even top 100 results.
Obviously searching through the many pages and pages of resulting sites will take extra time, especially if you do not have a high-speed connection to the Internet. But, this time spent may well be worth it if you find some gems in the rough! So if you have the time, speed, and patience, browse through the deeper results pages. You never know what you may find!
And that’s it – my top five list of things you must realize when searching. This covers slow access time, results not on page 1, browser bugs, web sites popping up and down and changing management, and the need for sites to make money, causing advertisements to become more obtrusive. Gosh, that just makes you want to go out and search right now, doesn’t it? .
To help you in this process and show that you are not, I’ve compiled a top five list of things you must realize when searching the web for information. No pencils will fly, no drums will roll, but you just might learn something.
5. Search Engines Have to Make Money
Before you grumble over the growing number of advertisements and sponsored links that appear in search engine results page, remember that most search engines are free. You’re not paying anything for a very costly service. Thus, these sites have to earn income somehow to stay afloat (computing power and bandwidth isn’t cheap!) So, to put it bluntly… live with it.
(Yes, I know some types of advertising are much more obtrusive than others. Popup ads, dancing animations, and other larger advertisements may make it harder to use some search engines that support these types of ads. If you don’t like it, vote with your mouse clicks and move to another search engine).
4. Sites Go Down
Worse yet, you’ve entered in your perfect search query, looked at the results page, and the first site you see no longer exists!
The Internet changes all the time. Unfortunately, search engines and directories are not able to constantly query every site on the Internet to see if they are still online. Occasionally (in other words, probably frequently) you will find links to web sites that no longer exist. It is just a part of life. Especially with the dot-com bust, many web site owners can no longer afford to host free resources. If they could not convert their traffic to paying customers, they just took their sites down
So when you find a link that is dead, don’t pump your fist in anger … just go back to the results page and move along. Or, better yet, if you’re using a search engine that caches pages, such as Google, just look at the cached version of the now defunct pages and find the information contained therein. It’s like stepping through a time machine!
3. Your Web Browser Will Crash
On a related note, not only do web sites go down – but so may your web browser. Sometimes it will be due to visiting a multimedia-intensive web site. Sometimes it will seem to happen for no reason. But it will happen, and when it does, don’t go blaming yourself saying that you did something wrong.
Web browsers, like just about any other type of computer software program available on the market, are not infallible. They can and usually do contain bugs. These may predictably rear their ugly heads when visiting sites containing a lot of multimedia and advanced interactive elements, or they may appear completely at random.
If your web browser crashes, do what I do. Just restart it. Don’t say you did something wrong. Don’t think that you must be so bad with computers that you crashed the Internet. Just restart your browser, and if you have to restart your computer to do so, then do it as well. Most likely the crash is not your fault.
2. The Internet Can Be Slow
No matter how fast your on-ramp to the Internet may be, there will be times where it seems to take forever to load a web page. This is just the nature of the beast.
As the Internet is a loosely connected network, if certain connections go down, computers may not always be able to route information via other networks. Thus access speed will suffer and your web browser will start to crawl. If this seems to be happening often, step away from the computer, go outside and take a nice, long walk (unless it’s 30 degrees below). You can run your search another time when the speed is back to normal.
And the #1 thing you must realize when searching…
1. The Best Result Just May Be On Page 10
Most people only look through the first page of search engine or directory results, usually the top ten listings. Others may visit the second page, but relatively very few people venture to the higher numbered pages.
This is a shame – sometimes the best results to a search engine query are not in the first ten listings as they may only contain links to commercially driven sites or sites run by web owners who know how to manipulate listings. In some cases web sites containing perfectly good information may not be listed in the top 10, 20, 50, or even top 100 results.
Obviously searching through the many pages and pages of resulting sites will take extra time, especially if you do not have a high-speed connection to the Internet. But, this time spent may well be worth it if you find some gems in the rough! So if you have the time, speed, and patience, browse through the deeper results pages. You never know what you may find!
And that’s it – my top five list of things you must realize when searching. This covers slow access time, results not on page 1, browser bugs, web sites popping up and down and changing management, and the need for sites to make money, causing advertisements to become more obtrusive. Gosh, that just makes you want to go out and search right now, doesn’t it? .
Monday, March 20, 2006
Top 5 Qualities to Look for in a Search Engine Optimization Program for your Website
Top 5 Qualities to Look for in a Search Engine Optimization Program
These days with millions of websites out there, you need a way to get noticed. When your company website is ranked highly in the major search engines, customers from all over the world can find your front door. suddenly, your virtual storefront becomes prime business property and you are making sales 24/7.
What can a web site owner do to make sure your site appears in the top 2 pages in any given search engine? You could buy some submission software, read some books and try it yourself. But what if you miss something and find your site’s not positioned, or worse, banned. The only other option is to hire a search engine specialist.
There are alot of self-proclaimed, "SEO specialists" and "search engine submission" companies, so you need to know what to look for in the positioning program they offer.
Here are my top five things to look for in a Search Engine position program:
1. SE Optimization (SEO) – The pages on your site are checked for the percentage of keywords you want to target, and the quality of the content on the page. Your SEO consultant should make recommendations regarding your site content to improve it in the eye of the Search Engines.
Key search engines like MSN and AOL Search still rely on metatags or html code that include keywords related to your site. A good SEO optimization of your metatags can mean the difference of a #40 ranking vs. a Top 20 ranking.
2. Pay per click (PPC) – PPC search engines like Overture (formerly Goto.com) and Findwhat can get you targeted, fast traffic while you are patiently watching the other search engines to rank your site. Recently, Overture’s top 3 keywords results show up at the top of searches on Yahoo! above the Yahoo! paid sites. For some keywords, paying for a top 3 position can be very expensive, but with careful research you can find some keywords available for 5 cents per click.
3. Regular monitoring - You should get an initial report in 4-6 weeks and then preferably a monthly report. Your SEO consultant should provide ideas on achieving better rankings for keywords that are not doing as well as you’d like to see. While a Top 10 ranking is the ideal, some Top 20 rankings are realistic.
4. Inclusion in select pay for inclusion SE indexes and directories – Inclusions in fee based can be useful if you want to target specific search engines or directories like Looksmart and Yahoo! Depending on your budget, you may want to purchase inclusion right away or hold off until the other Search Engines pick you up first. Your SEO consultant should provide the option to help you get into fee-based inclusions, and be able to explain the benefits and differences of each one.
5. Submission to key SE directories – To rank well on Google and in turn, Yahoo! web pages, you need to be listed in the Open Directory Project directory. Directories like ODP are human edited and depending on the category, it can take from 3 weeks to 2 months to get accepted.
Yahoo! is another key directory, and you MIGHT be able to get your site in for free still, if it’s non-commercial or a very localized business to a specific city or region. Your SEO consultant should submit your site to ODP and monitor it to make sure it’s accepted, and depending on the extent of your program, offer to submit your site to the Yahoo! free submit, if it’s appropriate.
These days with millions of websites out there, you need a way to get noticed. When your company website is ranked highly in the major search engines, customers from all over the world can find your front door. suddenly, your virtual storefront becomes prime business property and you are making sales 24/7.
What can a web site owner do to make sure your site appears in the top 2 pages in any given search engine? You could buy some submission software, read some books and try it yourself. But what if you miss something and find your site’s not positioned, or worse, banned. The only other option is to hire a search engine specialist.
There are alot of self-proclaimed, "SEO specialists" and "search engine submission" companies, so you need to know what to look for in the positioning program they offer.
Here are my top five things to look for in a Search Engine position program:
1. SE Optimization (SEO) – The pages on your site are checked for the percentage of keywords you want to target, and the quality of the content on the page. Your SEO consultant should make recommendations regarding your site content to improve it in the eye of the Search Engines.
Key search engines like MSN and AOL Search still rely on metatags or html code that include keywords related to your site. A good SEO optimization of your metatags can mean the difference of a #40 ranking vs. a Top 20 ranking.
2. Pay per click (PPC) – PPC search engines like Overture (formerly Goto.com) and Findwhat can get you targeted, fast traffic while you are patiently watching the other search engines to rank your site. Recently, Overture’s top 3 keywords results show up at the top of searches on Yahoo! above the Yahoo! paid sites. For some keywords, paying for a top 3 position can be very expensive, but with careful research you can find some keywords available for 5 cents per click.
3. Regular monitoring - You should get an initial report in 4-6 weeks and then preferably a monthly report. Your SEO consultant should provide ideas on achieving better rankings for keywords that are not doing as well as you’d like to see. While a Top 10 ranking is the ideal, some Top 20 rankings are realistic.
4. Inclusion in select pay for inclusion SE indexes and directories – Inclusions in fee based can be useful if you want to target specific search engines or directories like Looksmart and Yahoo! Depending on your budget, you may want to purchase inclusion right away or hold off until the other Search Engines pick you up first. Your SEO consultant should provide the option to help you get into fee-based inclusions, and be able to explain the benefits and differences of each one.
5. Submission to key SE directories – To rank well on Google and in turn, Yahoo! web pages, you need to be listed in the Open Directory Project directory. Directories like ODP are human edited and depending on the category, it can take from 3 weeks to 2 months to get accepted.
Yahoo! is another key directory, and you MIGHT be able to get your site in for free still, if it’s non-commercial or a very localized business to a specific city or region. Your SEO consultant should submit your site to ODP and monitor it to make sure it’s accepted, and depending on the extent of your program, offer to submit your site to the Yahoo! free submit, if it’s appropriate.
Friday, March 17, 2006
Service Level Agreement (SLA) Boot Camp
Service Level Agreements, or "SLA's" are tricky but useful mechanisms for managing the risk of an on-going relationship with IT service providers. Unfortunately, most SLA's that show up in service contracts as worthless, cosmetic paper additions. SLA's can be extremely powerful tools to help you and your service provider get the most out of a relationship.
What is an SLA?
A service level agreement (SLA), in its most basic form, is a contractual commitment to meet specific goals. If, for example, you sign up for a hosting contract with a provider, you may desire an SLA that measures the up-time of your website. If you outsource your help desk, you may want an SLA that measures the time it takes to answer the phone. Usually, an SLA includes a penalty and/or reward framework. For example, many web hosting companies offer a refund based on the number of hours your website is unavailable. On the flip-side, an SLA may include an extra bonus to your help desk provider if all calls are answered within 30 seconds. The following are typical examples of SLA's:
"All help desk call will be answered within 90 seconds"
"95% of all bills will be printed and delivered on time"
"The website will be available 99.99%"
"Project X will be delivered within 2 weeks of the planned schedule"
What isn't an SLA?
An SLA is not a way to cut your costs. Rather, SLA's are mechanisms for managing risks, sharing pain, and benefiting from success. Many SLA's are setup as "outs" to contracts that allow customers to penalize technology providers for non-performance. Although penalties do reduce costs and they do send a strong signal to service providers to improve their service, neither you nor the service provider "win" if an SLA is missed. Think of an SLA as a shared goal.
SLA Philosophy
The best SLAs are setup to allow both you and your service provider to share in the success and failure of an agreement. If you intend to turn over the operation of your billing system to a service provider, getting the bills out on time is critical. Whether you do it yourself or partner with someone, if you fail to produce invoices, you delay incoming revenue. In this example, your SLA should inspire your vendor to deliver on performance levels that have an actual impact to your business. Let's say your current billing accuracy is 90%. If you increase this accuracy to 95%, you have directly improved your company's bottom line. If you intend to outsource this function, your SLA should include a shared billing accuracy reward to the service provider if they help you improve revenues.
Make It Count
Some web hosting plans offer an up-time measure that, if not met, will result in a refund to you. Unfortunately, this "refund" may be calculated as a credit based on the time that your site was down and your monthly hosting fee. For example, if you pay $100 per month for hosting services, and your site is down for 1 hour, your credit may only be 14 cents! $100/720 (number of hours in a month) = $0.14. If, on average, you sell $50 worth of goods through your website each hour, 14 cents isn't much of a blow to your hosting company. I recognize that my example is slightly exaggerated. Many hosting companies offer a more material penalty and most web sites do not generate $50 in sales per hour. But you can see how this penalty and SLA is mis-aligned with the business model. If you know you make $50 per hour in sales through your website, your hosting company should incur a much greater penalty for not keeping your website up and running! Whether you negotiate an SLA with a hosting company or a large IT company, create an SLA that is specific to your business and truly establishes risk sharing (i.e. we "win" or "loose" together).
Devil In The Details
A good SLA has four critical components: description, target, measurement, and penalty/reward. If you have an SLA that is missing one of these components, you run the risk of losing the benefit of having the SLA to begin with. In the web hosting example above, the SLA sounds good, but the actual measurement and penalty weigh heavily in the favor of the hosting company (they have little to loose!) Make sure your SLA's are well defined and agreed upon before you ink the deal. Here's an example of a good SLA:
Description: Billing - All bills will be rendered, printed, and mailed on a timely basis to ensure unbilled revenue is minimized.
Target: 90%
Measurement: Ratio of number of planned bills / number of bills actually produced. The calculation is based on the number of records in the billing input file compared against the billing output log file which lists the bills actually rendered.
Reward/Penalty: If billing accuracy is below 90%, penalty is calculated as 1% of the unbilled revenue for that billing run. If billing accuracy is above 90%, a bonus is calculated as 1% of the additional revenue billed.
In this SLA example, your service provider stands to loose or gain substantially based on their performance. Similarly, your company stands to loose or gain substantially based on the performance of the service provider. Depending upon your daily billings, 1% could be significant. Note the specificity of the SLA measurement and calculation in my example. If you are not very specific with the calculation methods, actual performance against service levels are open for debate.
Negotiate Up Front
Many businesses strike deals with IT companies and leave SLA's as an open item. Many IT service providers will want to establish a "base line" period where SLA's are measured and then negotiated. In many cases, this request is reasonable, especially if an IT company has little to no understanding of your environment and your current performance record. However, if you wait to negotiate service levels until after you ink a deal, you loose tremendous leverage with your provider unless you really think you can walk away from the deal. Ideally, choose a provider that is willing to negotiate a service level up front. In my experience, these SLA negotiations are much more difficult on the back-end.
Raise the Bar
A service level agreement should be changed periodically. Let's look back at my billing SLA example. Let's assume that after 1 year of service, your provider is billing at an accuracy, on average, of 95%, and in turn, you are rewarding them consistently for beating the original service level. It's time to raise the bar! If your provider can increase your accuracy from 90% to 95%, maybe they can increase your accuracy from 95% to 99%. Raise the SLA bar (target) to 95%, and only reward them if they beat this new level of quality. By providing the right incentives to improve upon service levels, both you and your service provider can benefit.
The Shorter, The Better
I have seen service contracts with dozens and dozens of SLA's. If you establish multiple SLA's, you and your service provider will have broad visibility into performance levels. However, establishing many SLA's can water down the over-arching performance of a service provider. Put simply, a service provider can "make-up" poor performance on one SLA by beating the performance target of another SLA. To keep things simple, pick the few critical success factors of your business and establish applicable service levels that your provider can truly focus on.
Service Level Agreements should be established as a "dashboard" for you and your service provider to share in the success and failure of your arrangement. SLA's are less effective if they are established as contract "outs" or as penalty frameworks, because they fail to drive a partnering relationship. Negotiate SLA's which, if met or beaten, truly benefit your company and your service provider. Always define SLA's to the lowest level of detail possible before you finalize the arrangement since negotiations become even more difficult after the deal is executed. And never commit to an SLA that could hurt you but not your provider.
What is an SLA?
A service level agreement (SLA), in its most basic form, is a contractual commitment to meet specific goals. If, for example, you sign up for a hosting contract with a provider, you may desire an SLA that measures the up-time of your website. If you outsource your help desk, you may want an SLA that measures the time it takes to answer the phone. Usually, an SLA includes a penalty and/or reward framework. For example, many web hosting companies offer a refund based on the number of hours your website is unavailable. On the flip-side, an SLA may include an extra bonus to your help desk provider if all calls are answered within 30 seconds. The following are typical examples of SLA's:
"All help desk call will be answered within 90 seconds"
"95% of all bills will be printed and delivered on time"
"The website will be available 99.99%"
"Project X will be delivered within 2 weeks of the planned schedule"
What isn't an SLA?
An SLA is not a way to cut your costs. Rather, SLA's are mechanisms for managing risks, sharing pain, and benefiting from success. Many SLA's are setup as "outs" to contracts that allow customers to penalize technology providers for non-performance. Although penalties do reduce costs and they do send a strong signal to service providers to improve their service, neither you nor the service provider "win" if an SLA is missed. Think of an SLA as a shared goal.
SLA Philosophy
The best SLAs are setup to allow both you and your service provider to share in the success and failure of an agreement. If you intend to turn over the operation of your billing system to a service provider, getting the bills out on time is critical. Whether you do it yourself or partner with someone, if you fail to produce invoices, you delay incoming revenue. In this example, your SLA should inspire your vendor to deliver on performance levels that have an actual impact to your business. Let's say your current billing accuracy is 90%. If you increase this accuracy to 95%, you have directly improved your company's bottom line. If you intend to outsource this function, your SLA should include a shared billing accuracy reward to the service provider if they help you improve revenues.
Make It Count
Some web hosting plans offer an up-time measure that, if not met, will result in a refund to you. Unfortunately, this "refund" may be calculated as a credit based on the time that your site was down and your monthly hosting fee. For example, if you pay $100 per month for hosting services, and your site is down for 1 hour, your credit may only be 14 cents! $100/720 (number of hours in a month) = $0.14. If, on average, you sell $50 worth of goods through your website each hour, 14 cents isn't much of a blow to your hosting company. I recognize that my example is slightly exaggerated. Many hosting companies offer a more material penalty and most web sites do not generate $50 in sales per hour. But you can see how this penalty and SLA is mis-aligned with the business model. If you know you make $50 per hour in sales through your website, your hosting company should incur a much greater penalty for not keeping your website up and running! Whether you negotiate an SLA with a hosting company or a large IT company, create an SLA that is specific to your business and truly establishes risk sharing (i.e. we "win" or "loose" together).
Devil In The Details
A good SLA has four critical components: description, target, measurement, and penalty/reward. If you have an SLA that is missing one of these components, you run the risk of losing the benefit of having the SLA to begin with. In the web hosting example above, the SLA sounds good, but the actual measurement and penalty weigh heavily in the favor of the hosting company (they have little to loose!) Make sure your SLA's are well defined and agreed upon before you ink the deal. Here's an example of a good SLA:
Description: Billing - All bills will be rendered, printed, and mailed on a timely basis to ensure unbilled revenue is minimized.
Target: 90%
Measurement: Ratio of number of planned bills / number of bills actually produced. The calculation is based on the number of records in the billing input file compared against the billing output log file which lists the bills actually rendered.
Reward/Penalty: If billing accuracy is below 90%, penalty is calculated as 1% of the unbilled revenue for that billing run. If billing accuracy is above 90%, a bonus is calculated as 1% of the additional revenue billed.
In this SLA example, your service provider stands to loose or gain substantially based on their performance. Similarly, your company stands to loose or gain substantially based on the performance of the service provider. Depending upon your daily billings, 1% could be significant. Note the specificity of the SLA measurement and calculation in my example. If you are not very specific with the calculation methods, actual performance against service levels are open for debate.
Negotiate Up Front
Many businesses strike deals with IT companies and leave SLA's as an open item. Many IT service providers will want to establish a "base line" period where SLA's are measured and then negotiated. In many cases, this request is reasonable, especially if an IT company has little to no understanding of your environment and your current performance record. However, if you wait to negotiate service levels until after you ink a deal, you loose tremendous leverage with your provider unless you really think you can walk away from the deal. Ideally, choose a provider that is willing to negotiate a service level up front. In my experience, these SLA negotiations are much more difficult on the back-end.
Raise the Bar
A service level agreement should be changed periodically. Let's look back at my billing SLA example. Let's assume that after 1 year of service, your provider is billing at an accuracy, on average, of 95%, and in turn, you are rewarding them consistently for beating the original service level. It's time to raise the bar! If your provider can increase your accuracy from 90% to 95%, maybe they can increase your accuracy from 95% to 99%. Raise the SLA bar (target) to 95%, and only reward them if they beat this new level of quality. By providing the right incentives to improve upon service levels, both you and your service provider can benefit.
The Shorter, The Better
I have seen service contracts with dozens and dozens of SLA's. If you establish multiple SLA's, you and your service provider will have broad visibility into performance levels. However, establishing many SLA's can water down the over-arching performance of a service provider. Put simply, a service provider can "make-up" poor performance on one SLA by beating the performance target of another SLA. To keep things simple, pick the few critical success factors of your business and establish applicable service levels that your provider can truly focus on.
Service Level Agreements should be established as a "dashboard" for you and your service provider to share in the success and failure of your arrangement. SLA's are less effective if they are established as contract "outs" or as penalty frameworks, because they fail to drive a partnering relationship. Negotiate SLA's which, if met or beaten, truly benefit your company and your service provider. Always define SLA's to the lowest level of detail possible before you finalize the arrangement since negotiations become even more difficult after the deal is executed. And never commit to an SLA that could hurt you but not your provider.
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
Negotiating Technology Contracts
Have you ever tried to negotiate a deal for software, computer equipment, or consulting services with a technology company? The task can be daunting. Unfortunately, the sales forces of most IT companies are armed to the hilt with techniques to get the best deal for them, and not necessarily the best deal for you. And even worse, most of us computer folk (like myself) have never been trained in the art of negotiation, so it can be difficult to spot a snake in the grass. Before you begin negotiating a technology deal, know what you're getting in to.
Solicit, Don't Be Solicited
I receive at least three calls each day from technology vendors interested in selling something: hardware equipment, software tools, consulting services, etc. Usually, these calls are "cold". My name somehow landed on a telemarketing list in the hands of some vendor who is calling me out of the clear blue sky hoping that what they sell somehow matches what I need. You can waste hours on the phone letting some non-technical, script-reading, telemarketer or sales representative chew your ear off about their latest and greatest gizmo. Very rarely do these types of calls ever translate into a real business opportunity.
The most popular cold call opening is "Good morning. This is Joe from the XYZ software company. We offer break through whatever solutions to help you reduce your total cost of ownership for whatever. Let me ask you, are your responsible for managing your companies whatever investment?" I get so many of these calls that I can answer them in my sleep. Years ago, I used to engage in some level of discussion with these people and it always went nowhere. Unless you really think they've got something you might want to buy, cut them off immediately. And just like any telemarketer, they have a scripted response for anything. If you answer the above question with "No. I am not". The immediate response will be "Could you direct me to someone in the company that is responsible for whatever". If you hand out a name and number, you're just passing the buck to some other poor soul in your organization. My favorite response is "No. We don't respond to phone solicitations." Nine times out of ten, they will give up. Sometimes, the cold caller will make another run at it and re-state their purpose or as they close the call, sneak in another sales pitch. "Yes sir. I understand. We offer something really great for your company and would love to send you a free trial version at absolutely no cost. Its free to try." You could be tempted to say "Free? Tell me more." Again, this type of response will just open up the sales speech flood gates and you will be wasting your time trying to get a word in edge-wise. Stick to your guns: "As I said. We don't respond to phone solicitations." is the proper response. If they make yet one more run at it, the final blow would be "Not sure if you're deaf, but I said we don't respond to phone solicitations. Tell me your name and transfer me to your supervisor." You will either hear apologies or a dial tone. Either way, you've just gotten yourself off of a call list and will never be bothered again.
If you're interested in buying something, you do the calling, not the other way around.
Put The Horse Before The Cart
Never begin looking for technology solutions without knowing what you're looking for. Know the business problem you're trying to solve. If you know you need a software package that automates statistical analysis, flush out a more detailed set of statistics requirements (types of model, sample sizes, etc.) before you begin to shop around. Usually, software products have bells and whistles that, although look cool, are not absolutely needed. Before you begin comparison shopping, define your basic technology and business requirements. Knowing what you really need will give you confidence and leverage in a negotiation.
Always Comparison Shop
No matter what, always evaluate multiple options. If you're looking for software, don't get excited and latch on to the first package that looks good. And certainly don't give a sales rep. the impression that you're overly interested in their solution. They will be less likely to move during a negotiation. The IT market is over abundant with hardware, software and services solutions. Probably, you will have many options to choose from. Be picky!
Create Your Game Plan
Before you begin negotiating a deal with any technology vendor, plan your negotiation carefully. I have included some general planning questions that you should answer in preparation for a negotiation. The questions I have listed below may not make sense for your negotiation, so feel free to modify them for the occasion. The point here is to prepare in advance. You don't want to figure out the answers to these types of questions in the middle of a negotiation as it may give an inch to the sales person. I would even recommend writing the questions and answers on a sheet of paper for reference.
(Price) How much do you think you should pay for this software or service? What is the market rate or street price? What are you prepared to spend? What is the highest price you would be willing to pay?
(Features) What key features and capabilities are you looking for? Force rank the features. What does the prioritized list look like? Of the features you need, categorize them into two categories: "must have" and "nice to have".
(Service Levels) Do you expect some level of performance from the equipment, software, or service? Are there up-time requirements? Do you need 24x7 technical support? Do you expect the vendor to incur a penalty if they don't perform up to your service levels?
(Trades) What is most important to you: price, features, or service level? Force rank these in order of importance. Would you be willing to trade items between categories? For example, would you be willing to give up a certain service level for a lower price?
(Suppliers) Which vendors offer something that you think could meet your needs? How long have these companies been in business? Are you doing business with them already? Do you have a good business relationship with them?
(Gravy) If you had your druthers, what extras would you like the vendor to throw in for free? Would you like training or extra manuals? Would you like special reporting?
You will probably have more questions in addition to the ones listed above. Take the time to write them down and create the answers. Once you have established your position, you will save a great deal of time evaluating your potential vendors and negotiations will be less painful.
Lead The Dance
When you are ready to face off with a vendor, do your best to drive the discussion. Get as much information about the vendor and their product and service before price enters into the discussion. Just like car buying, pick out your car (or choice of cars) before you negotiate a price. If you find that the discussion is prematurely heading toward pricing, bring the conversation back to understanding the product or service itself. If you're not ready to talk price, say something like "Right now, I am just evaluating your product (or service). Unless I think there's a real opportunity, I'm not prepared to negotiate price right now."
Pricing for hardware, software, and services follow very different models. Hardware prices are fairly standard unless the product is new. Usually, the mark-up on hardware is very small (1-15%). On the flip- side, the mark-up for software is huge (100%+). Software is priced based on value, not the cost to the vendor so you can usually negotiate software prices down substantially. Services are usually based on labor rates and are marked up based on the demand for those skills (15-50%).
When you are ready to discuss pricing, take the lead in the dance. Here are the steps to follow (in this order):
1. Make the vendor throw out the first offer. Never be the first one to suggest a price. Although rare, you could hear the question "how much would you be willing to pay for our product?" A good response would be "As little as possible. What's your offer?" This response puts the ball firmly in the vendor's court. Remember, if you've done your planning, you really do have the answer to this question, but your job is get a price far below your maximum, so don't tell the vendor up front!
2. Express concern. Never get excited about the first offer no matter what. If you're considering other alternatives, you may be able to get a better price. My favorite tactic is to say nothing and simply make a non-verbal expression of concern. Usually, the vendor will come back with either "but I'm sure we could sharpen our pencil", or "we could probably come down lower if that price is too high", or the ever popular "but we're willing to work with you". You may also be prodded with "You don't seem to like that price. I seem to be out of the ball park. What price would you be comfortable with?" Here's where the dance gets interesting.
3. Make the vendor throw out the second offer. This can be difficult, but by making the vendor throw out more prices, you are lowering the ceiling of the negotiation going forward. If, in step 2, the vendor says "we could probably come down lower if that price is too high.", immediately respond with "How much could you come down?" or "It seems you didn't give me your best price to begin with. What's your best price?". Latch on to what a vendor is saying and keep asking questions. Stay on this step as long as possible and try and keep the vendor to continue to provide better pricing.
4. Counter offer. Propose a different price than what's on the table. Be reasonable. If you've done your homework and checked the going price for the product or service, you know what the range is. If you throw out a price that you know is ridiculous, it will look like you don't know what you're doing. However, if you counter with a price that demonstrates that you've done your homework, the vendor will know you are serious. Justify for your counter offer. For example, you may want to reveal that you've done some market analysis by saying "I've researched the market a little and think my offer is more in line with market prices." Obviously, the vendor may disagree, but at least you're backing up your counter price.
5. Trade. Unless you can land on a price outright, there will likely be gives and takes on both sides. Go back to your to plan and begin proposing trades. Always make trades that bring you little to no value but may be perceived as valuable by the vendor. This can be very difficult, but can pay huge dividends. Here is a perfect example. Let's say you want a service contract to outsource your help desk (technical support phone service). Let's say you really want the help desk to answer your calls within 1 minute (you've already figured out this requirement in your plan) but the vendor's first offer is to answer your calls within 30 seconds. Let's also assume that price is more important to you than having your calls answered 30 seconds faster (remember- the vendor doesn't know this). And let's say the offer on the table is $5 per call. A great trade proposal would be "Your price is too high for me. I can recognize that you need enough people to answer those calls within 30 seconds and that has value. I would be willing to sacrifice an extra 30 seconds on each call if you could bring your price down." If the vendor responds with a counter-offer, circle back to steps 4 and 5. Try and keep the counter offer / trade cycle going as long as possible.
6. Nibble. Just as you and the vendor are about to agree to terms and everyone starts smiling and shaking hands, start asking for the gravy. Let's say you've just negotiated a software deal and you would really like some training. Just when you think the vendor believes the negotiation is at its very end, you could say "I am really glad we could work this out. I'm looking forward to using your software. One more thing- would you mind spending a couple days showing me how to use your product. A little training could be useful. Is that ok with you?" You run the risk of opening up the negotiation, but you stand a better chance of getting a few extras free of charge.
7. Walk The Talk. If you've set your maximum price and you can't seem to negotiate what you want even with trades, walk away. Be firm and truly be prepared to walk away. Be blunt. "It seems we're not getting anywhere. I think I'll take my business elsewhere. Thanks for your time." Shutting the discussion down can sometimes break the log jam. If a vendor really thinks they're going to loose the business, they may suddenly move.
8. Patience is a Virtue. Negotiations take time. Before you begin, know what your timeframe to make a decision is. Never act hurried or anxious. Come across to the vendor as relaxed and confident (but not cocky). The message you want to send to the vendor is "I've got all the time in the world."
9. Never Lie. Although this happens in many negotiations, telling lies will hurt your reputation and could poison vendor relationships. I am not a proponent of outright fibbing. Be honest but don't give away your hand.
Follow these steps, and you will strike better deals and build confidence in your ability to negotiate. What I have left out in the steps above are standard questions that vendors love to ask. Let me leave you with these questions, their underlying motive, and what you should say. The trick is to always put the ball back in the vendor's court to better your position:
Question: "What's your budget for this project?"
Motive: Setting the price floor
Answer: "That's confidential. Why do you need to know that?"
Question: "What's most important to you? Price or service levels?"
Motive : Prioritizing your trades
Answer : "They're both important to me. I'm looking for the best package"
Question: "How soon do you need to make a decision?"
Motive: Setting the timeframe
Answer : "I will make a decision when I can get the overall best deal"
Question: "Can you make decision quickly. I've got to make my sales quota and our quarter is ending soon. I can't guarantee I give you the same discount"
Motive : Apply pressure
Answer : "I'm not going to rush my decision because of your company's business calendar. We may need to re-think things..."
There are others, but always maintain your control, patience and poise and always take the lead in the negotiating dance!
Solicit, Don't Be Solicited
I receive at least three calls each day from technology vendors interested in selling something: hardware equipment, software tools, consulting services, etc. Usually, these calls are "cold". My name somehow landed on a telemarketing list in the hands of some vendor who is calling me out of the clear blue sky hoping that what they sell somehow matches what I need. You can waste hours on the phone letting some non-technical, script-reading, telemarketer or sales representative chew your ear off about their latest and greatest gizmo. Very rarely do these types of calls ever translate into a real business opportunity.
The most popular cold call opening is "Good morning. This is Joe from the XYZ software company. We offer break through whatever solutions to help you reduce your total cost of ownership for whatever. Let me ask you, are your responsible for managing your companies whatever investment?" I get so many of these calls that I can answer them in my sleep. Years ago, I used to engage in some level of discussion with these people and it always went nowhere. Unless you really think they've got something you might want to buy, cut them off immediately. And just like any telemarketer, they have a scripted response for anything. If you answer the above question with "No. I am not". The immediate response will be "Could you direct me to someone in the company that is responsible for whatever". If you hand out a name and number, you're just passing the buck to some other poor soul in your organization. My favorite response is "No. We don't respond to phone solicitations." Nine times out of ten, they will give up. Sometimes, the cold caller will make another run at it and re-state their purpose or as they close the call, sneak in another sales pitch. "Yes sir. I understand. We offer something really great for your company and would love to send you a free trial version at absolutely no cost. Its free to try." You could be tempted to say "Free? Tell me more." Again, this type of response will just open up the sales speech flood gates and you will be wasting your time trying to get a word in edge-wise. Stick to your guns: "As I said. We don't respond to phone solicitations." is the proper response. If they make yet one more run at it, the final blow would be "Not sure if you're deaf, but I said we don't respond to phone solicitations. Tell me your name and transfer me to your supervisor." You will either hear apologies or a dial tone. Either way, you've just gotten yourself off of a call list and will never be bothered again.
If you're interested in buying something, you do the calling, not the other way around.
Put The Horse Before The Cart
Never begin looking for technology solutions without knowing what you're looking for. Know the business problem you're trying to solve. If you know you need a software package that automates statistical analysis, flush out a more detailed set of statistics requirements (types of model, sample sizes, etc.) before you begin to shop around. Usually, software products have bells and whistles that, although look cool, are not absolutely needed. Before you begin comparison shopping, define your basic technology and business requirements. Knowing what you really need will give you confidence and leverage in a negotiation.
Always Comparison Shop
No matter what, always evaluate multiple options. If you're looking for software, don't get excited and latch on to the first package that looks good. And certainly don't give a sales rep. the impression that you're overly interested in their solution. They will be less likely to move during a negotiation. The IT market is over abundant with hardware, software and services solutions. Probably, you will have many options to choose from. Be picky!
Create Your Game Plan
Before you begin negotiating a deal with any technology vendor, plan your negotiation carefully. I have included some general planning questions that you should answer in preparation for a negotiation. The questions I have listed below may not make sense for your negotiation, so feel free to modify them for the occasion. The point here is to prepare in advance. You don't want to figure out the answers to these types of questions in the middle of a negotiation as it may give an inch to the sales person. I would even recommend writing the questions and answers on a sheet of paper for reference.
(Price) How much do you think you should pay for this software or service? What is the market rate or street price? What are you prepared to spend? What is the highest price you would be willing to pay?
(Features) What key features and capabilities are you looking for? Force rank the features. What does the prioritized list look like? Of the features you need, categorize them into two categories: "must have" and "nice to have".
(Service Levels) Do you expect some level of performance from the equipment, software, or service? Are there up-time requirements? Do you need 24x7 technical support? Do you expect the vendor to incur a penalty if they don't perform up to your service levels?
(Trades) What is most important to you: price, features, or service level? Force rank these in order of importance. Would you be willing to trade items between categories? For example, would you be willing to give up a certain service level for a lower price?
(Suppliers) Which vendors offer something that you think could meet your needs? How long have these companies been in business? Are you doing business with them already? Do you have a good business relationship with them?
(Gravy) If you had your druthers, what extras would you like the vendor to throw in for free? Would you like training or extra manuals? Would you like special reporting?
You will probably have more questions in addition to the ones listed above. Take the time to write them down and create the answers. Once you have established your position, you will save a great deal of time evaluating your potential vendors and negotiations will be less painful.
Lead The Dance
When you are ready to face off with a vendor, do your best to drive the discussion. Get as much information about the vendor and their product and service before price enters into the discussion. Just like car buying, pick out your car (or choice of cars) before you negotiate a price. If you find that the discussion is prematurely heading toward pricing, bring the conversation back to understanding the product or service itself. If you're not ready to talk price, say something like "Right now, I am just evaluating your product (or service). Unless I think there's a real opportunity, I'm not prepared to negotiate price right now."
Pricing for hardware, software, and services follow very different models. Hardware prices are fairly standard unless the product is new. Usually, the mark-up on hardware is very small (1-15%). On the flip- side, the mark-up for software is huge (100%+). Software is priced based on value, not the cost to the vendor so you can usually negotiate software prices down substantially. Services are usually based on labor rates and are marked up based on the demand for those skills (15-50%).
When you are ready to discuss pricing, take the lead in the dance. Here are the steps to follow (in this order):
1. Make the vendor throw out the first offer. Never be the first one to suggest a price. Although rare, you could hear the question "how much would you be willing to pay for our product?" A good response would be "As little as possible. What's your offer?" This response puts the ball firmly in the vendor's court. Remember, if you've done your planning, you really do have the answer to this question, but your job is get a price far below your maximum, so don't tell the vendor up front!
2. Express concern. Never get excited about the first offer no matter what. If you're considering other alternatives, you may be able to get a better price. My favorite tactic is to say nothing and simply make a non-verbal expression of concern. Usually, the vendor will come back with either "but I'm sure we could sharpen our pencil", or "we could probably come down lower if that price is too high", or the ever popular "but we're willing to work with you". You may also be prodded with "You don't seem to like that price. I seem to be out of the ball park. What price would you be comfortable with?" Here's where the dance gets interesting.
3. Make the vendor throw out the second offer. This can be difficult, but by making the vendor throw out more prices, you are lowering the ceiling of the negotiation going forward. If, in step 2, the vendor says "we could probably come down lower if that price is too high.", immediately respond with "How much could you come down?" or "It seems you didn't give me your best price to begin with. What's your best price?". Latch on to what a vendor is saying and keep asking questions. Stay on this step as long as possible and try and keep the vendor to continue to provide better pricing.
4. Counter offer. Propose a different price than what's on the table. Be reasonable. If you've done your homework and checked the going price for the product or service, you know what the range is. If you throw out a price that you know is ridiculous, it will look like you don't know what you're doing. However, if you counter with a price that demonstrates that you've done your homework, the vendor will know you are serious. Justify for your counter offer. For example, you may want to reveal that you've done some market analysis by saying "I've researched the market a little and think my offer is more in line with market prices." Obviously, the vendor may disagree, but at least you're backing up your counter price.
5. Trade. Unless you can land on a price outright, there will likely be gives and takes on both sides. Go back to your to plan and begin proposing trades. Always make trades that bring you little to no value but may be perceived as valuable by the vendor. This can be very difficult, but can pay huge dividends. Here is a perfect example. Let's say you want a service contract to outsource your help desk (technical support phone service). Let's say you really want the help desk to answer your calls within 1 minute (you've already figured out this requirement in your plan) but the vendor's first offer is to answer your calls within 30 seconds. Let's also assume that price is more important to you than having your calls answered 30 seconds faster (remember- the vendor doesn't know this). And let's say the offer on the table is $5 per call. A great trade proposal would be "Your price is too high for me. I can recognize that you need enough people to answer those calls within 30 seconds and that has value. I would be willing to sacrifice an extra 30 seconds on each call if you could bring your price down." If the vendor responds with a counter-offer, circle back to steps 4 and 5. Try and keep the counter offer / trade cycle going as long as possible.
6. Nibble. Just as you and the vendor are about to agree to terms and everyone starts smiling and shaking hands, start asking for the gravy. Let's say you've just negotiated a software deal and you would really like some training. Just when you think the vendor believes the negotiation is at its very end, you could say "I am really glad we could work this out. I'm looking forward to using your software. One more thing- would you mind spending a couple days showing me how to use your product. A little training could be useful. Is that ok with you?" You run the risk of opening up the negotiation, but you stand a better chance of getting a few extras free of charge.
7. Walk The Talk. If you've set your maximum price and you can't seem to negotiate what you want even with trades, walk away. Be firm and truly be prepared to walk away. Be blunt. "It seems we're not getting anywhere. I think I'll take my business elsewhere. Thanks for your time." Shutting the discussion down can sometimes break the log jam. If a vendor really thinks they're going to loose the business, they may suddenly move.
8. Patience is a Virtue. Negotiations take time. Before you begin, know what your timeframe to make a decision is. Never act hurried or anxious. Come across to the vendor as relaxed and confident (but not cocky). The message you want to send to the vendor is "I've got all the time in the world."
9. Never Lie. Although this happens in many negotiations, telling lies will hurt your reputation and could poison vendor relationships. I am not a proponent of outright fibbing. Be honest but don't give away your hand.
Follow these steps, and you will strike better deals and build confidence in your ability to negotiate. What I have left out in the steps above are standard questions that vendors love to ask. Let me leave you with these questions, their underlying motive, and what you should say. The trick is to always put the ball back in the vendor's court to better your position:
Question: "What's your budget for this project?"
Motive: Setting the price floor
Answer: "That's confidential. Why do you need to know that?"
Question: "What's most important to you? Price or service levels?"
Motive : Prioritizing your trades
Answer : "They're both important to me. I'm looking for the best package"
Question: "How soon do you need to make a decision?"
Motive: Setting the timeframe
Answer : "I will make a decision when I can get the overall best deal"
Question: "Can you make decision quickly. I've got to make my sales quota and our quarter is ending soon. I can't guarantee I give you the same discount"
Motive : Apply pressure
Answer : "I'm not going to rush my decision because of your company's business calendar. We may need to re-think things..."
There are others, but always maintain your control, patience and poise and always take the lead in the negotiating dance!
Monday, March 13, 2006
MSN Messenger Is A Sweet Way To Communicate
MSN messenger is a pretty cool invention. I mean I’m not really into serious discussions on the email, answers to questions can often take a few days to arrive because people are so busy these days. I’ve just been ‘hooked up’ into Messenger and it’s really a different kind of communication, quick, simplistic and even humorous with the capability to express your feelings with ‘emotion’ cartoons.
With Messenger you can communicate with a group of close friends or business partners instantly whenever they are at their computer. When a message is received you are informed instantly on your desktop, you don’t have to be at an email site. A little box appears flashing the name of the sender, you read the message and send a reply when you’ve got a second free.
There’s a contact list and when you go on-line, it automatically tells you who of your connections are on and off-line at that moment. If someone goes on-line after you’ve already been at your computer, a small box appears on your screen to tell you who are now also instantly message able. It’s like the spontaneity of a telephone call but you don’t even have to dial any numbers! Just log in your password and you’re connected.
The huge array of smiley faces and other ‘emotional’ icons add another dimension to the conversations. Some of the smiley faces actually move (sticking their tongues out etc.) and there are many other symbols to express the moment. E.g.: Show a little sun when it’s sunny in your neighborhood, flash a wilted rose when your love life isn’t going to well, put up a black sheep when you’re feeling disconnected from society. How about expressing your dream of a holiday by flashing up the tropical island icon when you’re stuck in dreary office working hard on a cloudy day. They say a picture speaks a thousand words…
Well I certainly don’t work for Microsoft but I guess Bill Gates and his buddies have made a few bucks because they’ve had a couple of good ideas. They’re helping the world with their knowledge, and I reckon their MSN Messenger is another step forward in bringing the Earth together into one world. Besides the normal email format you can also have web cam and audio conversations, as well as sending files and photos instantly. It’s as sweet as that first time you kissed your honey bunny, well maybe not that sweet.
With Messenger you can communicate with a group of close friends or business partners instantly whenever they are at their computer. When a message is received you are informed instantly on your desktop, you don’t have to be at an email site. A little box appears flashing the name of the sender, you read the message and send a reply when you’ve got a second free.
There’s a contact list and when you go on-line, it automatically tells you who of your connections are on and off-line at that moment. If someone goes on-line after you’ve already been at your computer, a small box appears on your screen to tell you who are now also instantly message able. It’s like the spontaneity of a telephone call but you don’t even have to dial any numbers! Just log in your password and you’re connected.
The huge array of smiley faces and other ‘emotional’ icons add another dimension to the conversations. Some of the smiley faces actually move (sticking their tongues out etc.) and there are many other symbols to express the moment. E.g.: Show a little sun when it’s sunny in your neighborhood, flash a wilted rose when your love life isn’t going to well, put up a black sheep when you’re feeling disconnected from society. How about expressing your dream of a holiday by flashing up the tropical island icon when you’re stuck in dreary office working hard on a cloudy day. They say a picture speaks a thousand words…
Well I certainly don’t work for Microsoft but I guess Bill Gates and his buddies have made a few bucks because they’ve had a couple of good ideas. They’re helping the world with their knowledge, and I reckon their MSN Messenger is another step forward in bringing the Earth together into one world. Besides the normal email format you can also have web cam and audio conversations, as well as sending files and photos instantly. It’s as sweet as that first time you kissed your honey bunny, well maybe not that sweet.
Friday, March 10, 2006
Finally - New Spam Prevention Product That Works!
Businesses and consumers are drowning in a never-ending deluge of Spam (junk mail) - according to reports just released by Quris, Inc. Spam has increased 450% from June of 2001 to now. Furthermore, 70% of respondents indicated they are receiving so much e-mail in the form of Spam that it's negating their acceptance and responsiveness to legitimate opt-in e-mail messages (permission based). The average business user is forced to spend 20-30 minutes a day wading through Spam clogged e-mail in-box es trying to separate legitimate e-mail from the junk in order to delete the latter.
Many companies have tried to offer Spam solutions that are based primarily on filtering technology. But, most of these products and services have not worked well in practice - the ingenious spammers have learned work arounds by constantly changing their fake e-mail addresses and text to avoid the blocking filters. It's been a war of attrition to date and the spammers have been wining so far!
I am pleased to report that one company has developed an elegant but simple solution that has blocked 100% of the Spam that was sent to me during a test period of five days. The company is DigiPortal Software, Inc. www.digiportal.com and their Spam killer application is called ChoiceMail. It works extremely well, is easy to setup and only costs $29.95 (introductory price) and they even offer a fourteen-day trial period for no charge to test drive the product. And, the solution runs on your desktop and does not necessitate your working with a third party server and doesn't require any service charges. Most importantly, it puts the burden of proof on the Spammers, forcing them to have your permission to contact you.
Here is how DigiPortal's clever solution and software work: You download or purchase the software and install it on your PC (sorry PC version only right now) and setup your approval list by exporting your address book. From that point forward ChoiceMail automatically assumes all inbound e-mail is Spam and it blocks any e-mail that is not on an approved list that you have created.
If the e-mail sender is on your approved list it makes it through to your inbox; if not, then ChoiceMail blocks the mail address and adds it to a rejection list and sends the sender a notification that you're on a "permission network" and that he/she has to click through to a web site and send you a message by filling out a form that automatically forwards the person's message to you, so you can elect to receive it or not.
DigiPortal is effectively acting as a trusted middleman in a process that reminds me of PGP ("Pretty Good Privacy") the defacto industry standard e-mail security application that incorporates a similar process via a key held by a trusted third party. You're ostensibly guaranteed never to receive any Spam based e-mail as spammers will never receive your e-mail, let alone reply to it - most use automated systems that have no human intervention in the process. It's relatively painless for you to manage new contacts - if you're receiving in-bound e-mails from a new a person (contact) that you have no existing relationship with, it's easy to accept his/her request to reach you and the software also automatically updates your permission list.
ChoiceMail is an elegant solution that works well, is easy to use and solves a problem very cost effectively. There are a few hiccups with the software - but, these are minor when you consider the significant benefits of the product and assuming the company will broaden its support for other applications in the near term. At present DigiPortal only works with standard ISPs such as Earthlink, ATT, etc. and with specific desktop clients including Outlook Express and Eudora - no web-based e-mail services (HotMail or Yahoo mail) work with the software yet and there is no support for AOL at present. My biggest complaint is that they don't support a standard Outlook e-mail - you have to manually import your contact list from Outlook, which can be painstaking depending on the number of recipients in your address book. And, their initial focus is on the small business user or consumer, as they offer no support at present for the corporate enterprise.
Many companies have tried to offer Spam solutions that are based primarily on filtering technology. But, most of these products and services have not worked well in practice - the ingenious spammers have learned work arounds by constantly changing their fake e-mail addresses and text to avoid the blocking filters. It's been a war of attrition to date and the spammers have been wining so far!
I am pleased to report that one company has developed an elegant but simple solution that has blocked 100% of the Spam that was sent to me during a test period of five days. The company is DigiPortal Software, Inc. www.digiportal.com and their Spam killer application is called ChoiceMail. It works extremely well, is easy to setup and only costs $29.95 (introductory price) and they even offer a fourteen-day trial period for no charge to test drive the product. And, the solution runs on your desktop and does not necessitate your working with a third party server and doesn't require any service charges. Most importantly, it puts the burden of proof on the Spammers, forcing them to have your permission to contact you.
Here is how DigiPortal's clever solution and software work: You download or purchase the software and install it on your PC (sorry PC version only right now) and setup your approval list by exporting your address book. From that point forward ChoiceMail automatically assumes all inbound e-mail is Spam and it blocks any e-mail that is not on an approved list that you have created.
If the e-mail sender is on your approved list it makes it through to your inbox; if not, then ChoiceMail blocks the mail address and adds it to a rejection list and sends the sender a notification that you're on a "permission network" and that he/she has to click through to a web site and send you a message by filling out a form that automatically forwards the person's message to you, so you can elect to receive it or not.
DigiPortal is effectively acting as a trusted middleman in a process that reminds me of PGP ("Pretty Good Privacy") the defacto industry standard e-mail security application that incorporates a similar process via a key held by a trusted third party. You're ostensibly guaranteed never to receive any Spam based e-mail as spammers will never receive your e-mail, let alone reply to it - most use automated systems that have no human intervention in the process. It's relatively painless for you to manage new contacts - if you're receiving in-bound e-mails from a new a person (contact) that you have no existing relationship with, it's easy to accept his/her request to reach you and the software also automatically updates your permission list.
ChoiceMail is an elegant solution that works well, is easy to use and solves a problem very cost effectively. There are a few hiccups with the software - but, these are minor when you consider the significant benefits of the product and assuming the company will broaden its support for other applications in the near term. At present DigiPortal only works with standard ISPs such as Earthlink, ATT, etc. and with specific desktop clients including Outlook Express and Eudora - no web-based e-mail services (HotMail or Yahoo mail) work with the software yet and there is no support for AOL at present. My biggest complaint is that they don't support a standard Outlook e-mail - you have to manually import your contact list from Outlook, which can be painstaking depending on the number of recipients in your address book. And, their initial focus is on the small business user or consumer, as they offer no support at present for the corporate enterprise.
Tuesday, March 7, 2006
Spam Spasms & Spamocidal Mania
Below is a letter I wrote to the following organizations:
S.H.U. (Spam-Haters Unanimous)
N.A.A.P.W.H.S. (National Association for the Advancement of People Who Hate Spam)
P.W.H.P.W.D.H.S. (People Who Hate People Who Don't Hate Spam)
P.F.W.S.H.I.A.L.C. (People for Whom Spam-Hating is a Lifestyle Choice)
S.A.P.W.R.R.R.H.S. (Society for the Advancement of People Who Really Really Really Hate Spam)
P.W.H.S.S.M.I.M.L.W.S.C.O.T.E. (People Who Hate Spam So Much It Makes Little Wisps of Steam Come Out of Their Ears)
And, of course: Spam Haters In The Business of Internet Resource Directory Services.
DEAR FELLOW SPAM HATERS,
I'm writing to suggest that we combine forces in order to present a common front in our righteous war on unsolicited commercial email:
Spam!
I suggest we disband the myriad sites and organizations now opposing unsolicited commercial email in order to form a single, unified organization:
The Spammish Inquisition!
And I further suggest we elect me, Linda Cox, as our leader. Our Grand Inquisatrix!
WHAT ARE MY QUALIFICATIONS?
You think YOU hate spam? You don't even know what hate is!
I hate spam so much that I... well, just a LOT! That's how much!
If I hated spam any more than I already do, I think my head would burst into flames and spin like a top! Can you say that?
Don't think so.
I don't mean to say that I don't hate other things too, like pedophiles and nazis and that drunk guy who backed over my cat when I was seven.
But spam... hooboy!
SQUISH 'EM LIKE BUGS!
I believe we should have a constitutional amendment allowing cruel and unusual punishment in the case of spammers. Maybe that tummy thing like the Japanese do when they get depressed.
As with drugs, mere possession of bulk emailing software should result in the immediate confiscation of the computer it was on, as well as any nice clothes, jewelry, or lawn statuary that might have been purchased with spam profits.
Just thinking about sending spam should be illegal, like joking about bombs in an airport. If I get to be Grand Inquisatrix, I'll have my own force of men-in-black dudes to sniff out spamsters and be really mean to them and call them names until they promise to be good little netizens again.
It's for their own good.
IN CLOSING...
Having looked at the websites of some of the anti-spam crusaders, I know that I am not alone in my revulsion, disgust and utter skin-crawling contempt for spam.
Like them, I have turned a blind-eye to more mundane problems like hunger, illiteracy, disease, country music and poverty so as to focus on the true menace ravaging our cyber-society.
If you wish to support my crusade, you may do so by sending me $99, and as a free gift I'll send you a CD with the email addresses of 40 million netizens eagerly awaiting news of your latest product or service.
Linda Cox, G.I.W. (Grand Inquisatrix Wannabe)
P.S. Oh yeah... stale croutons. Hate 'em.
S.H.U. (Spam-Haters Unanimous)
N.A.A.P.W.H.S. (National Association for the Advancement of People Who Hate Spam)
P.W.H.P.W.D.H.S. (People Who Hate People Who Don't Hate Spam)
P.F.W.S.H.I.A.L.C. (People for Whom Spam-Hating is a Lifestyle Choice)
S.A.P.W.R.R.R.H.S. (Society for the Advancement of People Who Really Really Really Hate Spam)
P.W.H.S.S.M.I.M.L.W.S.C.O.T.E. (People Who Hate Spam So Much It Makes Little Wisps of Steam Come Out of Their Ears)
And, of course: Spam Haters In The Business of Internet Resource Directory Services.
DEAR FELLOW SPAM HATERS,
I'm writing to suggest that we combine forces in order to present a common front in our righteous war on unsolicited commercial email:
Spam!
I suggest we disband the myriad sites and organizations now opposing unsolicited commercial email in order to form a single, unified organization:
The Spammish Inquisition!
And I further suggest we elect me, Linda Cox, as our leader. Our Grand Inquisatrix!
WHAT ARE MY QUALIFICATIONS?
You think YOU hate spam? You don't even know what hate is!
I hate spam so much that I... well, just a LOT! That's how much!
If I hated spam any more than I already do, I think my head would burst into flames and spin like a top! Can you say that?
Don't think so.
I don't mean to say that I don't hate other things too, like pedophiles and nazis and that drunk guy who backed over my cat when I was seven.
But spam... hooboy!
SQUISH 'EM LIKE BUGS!
I believe we should have a constitutional amendment allowing cruel and unusual punishment in the case of spammers. Maybe that tummy thing like the Japanese do when they get depressed.
As with drugs, mere possession of bulk emailing software should result in the immediate confiscation of the computer it was on, as well as any nice clothes, jewelry, or lawn statuary that might have been purchased with spam profits.
Just thinking about sending spam should be illegal, like joking about bombs in an airport. If I get to be Grand Inquisatrix, I'll have my own force of men-in-black dudes to sniff out spamsters and be really mean to them and call them names until they promise to be good little netizens again.
It's for their own good.
IN CLOSING...
Having looked at the websites of some of the anti-spam crusaders, I know that I am not alone in my revulsion, disgust and utter skin-crawling contempt for spam.
Like them, I have turned a blind-eye to more mundane problems like hunger, illiteracy, disease, country music and poverty so as to focus on the true menace ravaging our cyber-society.
If you wish to support my crusade, you may do so by sending me $99, and as a free gift I'll send you a CD with the email addresses of 40 million netizens eagerly awaiting news of your latest product or service.
Linda Cox, G.I.W. (Grand Inquisatrix Wannabe)
P.S. Oh yeah... stale croutons. Hate 'em.
Sunday, March 5, 2006
The Metaphors of the Net
Four metaphors come to mind when we consider the Internet "philosophically":
1. A Genetic Blueprint
2. A Chaotic Library
3. A Collective Nervous System
4. An Unknown Continent (Terra Internetica)
1. The Genetic Blueprint
A decade after the invention of the World Wide Web, Tim Berners-Lee is promoting the "Semantic Web". The Internet hitherto is a repository of digital content. It has a rudimentary inventory system and very crude data location services. As a sad result, most of the content is invisible and inaccessible. Moreover, the Internet manipulates strings of symbols, not logical or semantic propositions. In other words, the Net compares values but does not know the meaning of the values it thus manipulates. It is unable to interpret strings, to infer new facts, to deduce, induce, derive, or otherwise comprehend what it is doing. In short, it does not understand language. Run an ambiguous term by any search engine and these shortcomings become painfully evident. This lack of understanding of the semantic foundations of its raw material (data, information) prevent applications and databases from sharing resources and feeding each other. The Internet is discrete, not continuous. It resembles an archipelago, with users hopping from island to island in a frantic search for relevancy.
Even visionaries like Berners-Lee do not contemplate an "intelligent Web". They are simply proposing to let users, content creators, and web developers assign descriptive meta-tags ("name of hotel") to fields, or to strings of symbols ("Hilton"). These meta-tags (arranged in semantic and relational "ontologies" - lists of metatags, their meanings and how they relate to each other) will be read by various applications and allow them to process the associated strings of symbols correctly (place the word "Hilton" in your address book under "hotels"). This will make information retrieval more efficient and reliable and the information retrieved is bound to be more relevant and amenable to higher level processing (statistics, the development of heuristic rules, etc.). The shift is from HTML (whose tags are concerned with visual appearances and content indexing) to languages such as the DARPA Agent Markup Language, OIL (Ontology Inference Layer or Ontology Interchange Language), or even XML (whose tags are concerned with content taxonomy, document structure, and semantics). This would bring the Internet closer to the classic library card catalogue.
Even in its current, pre-semantic, hyperlink-dependent, phase, the Internet brings to mind Richard Dawkins' seminal work "The Selfish Gene" (OUP, 1976). This would be doubly true for the Semantic Web.
Dawkins suggested to generalize the principle of natural selection to a law of the survival of the stable. "A stable thing is a collection of atoms which is permanent enough or common enough to deserve a name". He then proceeded to describe the emergence of "Replicators" - molecules which created copies of themselves. The Replicators that survived in the competition for scarce raw materials were characterized by high longevity, fecundity, and copying-fidelity. Replicators (now known as "genes") constructed "survival machines" (organisms) to shield them from the vagaries of an ever-harsher environment.
This is very reminiscent of the Internet. The "stable things" are HTML coded web pages. They are replicators - they create copies of themselves every time their "web address" (URL) is clicked. The HTML coding of a web page can be thought of as "genetic material". It contains all the information needed to reproduce the page. And, exactly as in nature, the higher the longevity, fecundity (measured in links to the web page from other web sites), and copying-fidelity of the HTML code - the higher its chances to survive (as a web page).
Replicator molecules (DNA) and replicator HTML have one thing in common - they are both packaged information. In the appropriate context (the right biochemical "soup" in the case of DNA, the right software application in the case of HTML code) - this information generates a "survival machine" (organism, or a web page).
The Semantic Web will only increase the longevity, fecundity, and copying-fidelity or the underlying code (in this case, OIL or XML instead of HTML). By facilitating many more interactions with many other web pages and databases - the underlying "replicator" code will ensure the "survival" of "its" web page (=its survival machine). In this analogy, the web page's "DNA" (its OIL or XML code) contains "single genes" (semantic meta-tags). The whole process of life is the unfolding of a kind of Semantic Web.
In a prophetic paragraph, Dawkins described the Internet:
"The first thing to grasp about a modern replicator is that it is highly gregarious. A survival machine is a vehicle containing not just one gene but many thousands. The manufacture of a body is a cooperative venture of such intricacy that it is almost impossible to disentangle the contribution of one gene from that of another. A given gene will have many different effects on quite different parts of the body. A given part of the body will be influenced by many genes and the effect of any one gene depends on interaction with many others...In terms of the analogy, any given page of the plans makes reference to many different parts of the building; and each page makes sense only in terms of cross-reference to numerous other pages"
What Dawkins neglected in his important work is the concept of the Network. People congregate in cities, mate, and reproduce, thus providing genes with new "survival machines". But Dawkins himself suggested that the new Replicator is the "meme" - an idea, belief, technique, technology, work of art, or bit of information. Memes use human brains as "survival machines" and they hop from brain to brain and across time and space ("communications") in the process of cultural (as distinct from biological) evolution. The Internet is a latter day meme-hopping playground. But, more importantly, it is a Network. Genes move from one container to another through a linear, serial, tedious process which involves prolonged periods of one on one gene shuffling ("sex") and gestation. Memes use networks. Their propagation is, therefore, parallel, fast, and all-pervasive. The Internet is a manifestation of the growing predominance of memes over genes. And the Semantic Web may be to the Internet what Artificial Intelligence is to classic computing. We may be on the threshold of a self-aware Web.
2. The Internet as a Chaotic Library
A. The Problem of Cataloguing
The Internet is an assortment of billions of pages which contain information. Some of them are visible and others are generated from hidden databases by users' requests ("Invisible Internet").
The Internet exhibits no discernible order, classification, or categorization. Amazingly, as opposed to "classical" libraries, no one has yet invented a (sorely needed) Internet cataloguing standard (remember Dewey?). Some sites indeed apply the Dewey Decimal System to their contents (Suite101). Others default to a directory structure (Open Directory, Yahoo!, Look Smart and others).
Had such a standard existed (an agreed upon numerical cataloguing method) - each site could have self-classified. Sites would have an interest to do so to increase their visibility. This, naturally, would have eliminated the need for today's clunky, incomplete and (highly) inefficient search engines.
Thus, a site whose number starts with 900 will be immediately identified as dealing with history and multiple classification will be encouraged to allow finer cross-sections to emerge. An example of such an emerging technology of "self classification" and "self-publication" (though limited to scholarly resources) is the "Academic Resource Channel" by Scindex.
Moreover, users will not be required to remember reams of numbers. Future browsers will be akin to catalogues, very much like the applications used in modern day libraries. Compare this utopia to the current dystopy. Users struggle with mounds of irrelevant material to finally reach a partial and disappointing destination. At the same time, there likely are web sites which exactly match the poor user's needs. Yet, what currently determines the chances of a happy encounter between user and content - are the whims of the specific search engine used and things like meta-tags, headlines, a fee paid, or the right opening sentences.
B. Screen vs. Page
The computer screen, because of physical limitations (size, the fact that it has to be scrolled) fails to effectively compete with the printed page. The latter is still the most ingenious medium yet invented for the storage and release of textual information. Granted: a computer screen is better at highlighting discrete units of information. So, these differing capacities draw the battle lines: structures (printed pages) versus units (screen), the continuous and easily reversible (print) versus the discrete (screen).
The solution lies in finding an efficient way to translate computer screens to printed matter. It is hard to believe, but no such thing exists. Computer screens are still hostile to off-line printing. In other words: if a user copies information from the Internet to his word processor (or vice versa, for that matter) - he ends up with a fragmented, garbage-filled and non-aesthetic document.
Very few site developers try to do something about it - even fewer succeed.
C. Dynamic vs. Static Interactions
One of the biggest mistakes of content suppliers is that they do not provide a "static-dynamic interaction".
Internet-based content can now easily interact with other media (e.g., CD-ROMs) and with non-PC platforms (PDA's, mobile phones).
Examples abound:
A CD-ROM shopping catalogue interacts with a Web site to allow the user to order a product. The catalogue could also be updated through the site (as is the practice with CD-ROM encyclopedias). The advantages of the CD-ROM are clear: very fast access time (dozens of times faster than the access to a Web site using a dial up connection) and a data storage capacity hundreds of times bigger than the average Web page.
Another example:
A PDA plug-in disposable chip containing hundreds of advertisements or a "yellow pages". The consumer selects the ad or entry that she wants to see and connects to the Internet to view a relevant video. She could then also have an interactive chat (or a conference) with a salesperson, receive information about the company, about the ad, about the advertising agency which created the ad - and so on.
CD-ROM based encyclopedias (such as the Britannica, or the Encarta) already contain hyperlinks which carry the user to sites selected by an Editorial Board.
Note
CD-ROMs are probably a doomed medium. Storage capacity continually increases exponentially and, within a year, desktops with 80 Gb hard disks will be a common sight. Moreover, the much heralded Network Computer - the stripped down version of the personal computer - will put at the disposal of the average user terabytes in storage capacity and the processing power of a supercomputer. What separates computer users from this utopia is the communication bandwidth. With the introduction of radio and satellite broadband services, DSL and ADSL, cable modems coupled with advanced compression standards - video (on demand), audio and data will be available speedily and plentifully.
The CD-ROM, on the other hand, is not mobile. It requires installation and the utilization of sophisticated hardware and software. This is no user friendly push technology. It is nerd-oriented. As a result, CD-ROMs are not an immediate medium. There is a long time lapse between the moment of purchase and the moment the user accesses the data. Compare this to a book or a magazine. Data in these oldest of media is instantly available to the user and they allow for easy and accurate "back" and "forward" functions.
Perhaps the biggest mistake of CD-ROM manufacturers has been their inability to offer an integrated hardware and software package. CD-ROMs are not compact. A Walkman is a compact hardware-cum-software package. It is easily transportable, it is thin, it contains numerous, user-friendly, sophisticated functions, it provides immediate access to data. So does the discman, or the MP3-man, or the new generation of e-books (e.g., E-Ink's). This cannot be said about the CD-ROM. By tying its future to the obsolete concept of stand-alone, expensive, inefficient and technologically unreliable personal computers - CD-ROMs have sentenced themselves to oblivion (with the possible exception of reference material).
D. Online Reference
A visit to the on-line Encyclopaedia Britannica demonstrates some of the tremendous, mind boggling possibilities of online reference - as well as some of the obstacles.
Each entry in this mammoth work of reference is hyperlinked to relevant Web sites. The sites are carefully screened. Links are available to data in various forms, including audio and video. Everything can be copied to the hard disk or to a R/W CD.
This is a new conception of a knowledge centre - not just a heap of material. The content is modular and continuously enriched. It can be linked to a voice Q&A centre. Queries by subscribers can be answered by e-mail, by fax, posted on the site, hard copies can be sent by post. This "Trivial Pursuit" or "homework" service could be very popular - there is considerable appetite for "Just in Time Information". The Library of Congress - together with a few other libraries - is in the process of making just such a service available to the public (CDRS - Collaborative Digital Reference Service).
E. Derivative Content
The Internet is an enormous reservoir of archives of freely accessible, or even public domain, information.
With a minimal investment, this information can be gathered into coherent, theme oriented, cheap compilations (on CD-ROMs, print, e-books or other media).
F. E-Publishing
The Internet is by far the world's largest publishing platform. It incorporates FAQs (Q&A's regarding almost every technical matter in the world), e-zines (electronic magazines), the electronic versions of print dailies and periodicals (in conjunction with on-line news and information services), reference material, e-books, monographs, articles, minutes of discussions ("threads"), conference proceedings, and much more besides.
The Internet represents major advantages to publishers. Consider the electronic version of a p-zine.
Publishing an e-zine promotes the sales of the printed edition, it helps sign on subscribers and it leads to the sale of advertising space. The electronic archive function (see next section) saves the need to file back issues, the physical space required to do so and the irritating search for data items.
The future trend is a combined subscription to both the electronic edition (mainly for the archival value and the ability to hyperlink to additional information) and to the print one (easier to browse the current issue). The Economist is already offering free access to its electronic archives as an inducement to its print subscribers.
The electronic daily presents other advantages:
It allows for immediate feedback and for flowing, almost real-time, communication between writers and readers. The electronic version, therefore, acquires a gyroscopic function: a navigation instrument, always indicating deviations from the "right" course. The content can be instantly updated and breaking news incorporated in older content.
Specialty hand held devices already allow for downloading and storage of vast quantities of data (up to 4000 print pages). The user gains access to libraries containing hundreds of texts, adapted to be downloaded, stored and read by the specific device. Again, a convergence of standards is to be expected in this field as well (the final contenders will probably be Adobe's PDF against Microsoft's MS-Reader).
Currently, e-books are dichotomously treated either as:
Continuation of print books (p-books) by other means, or as a whole new publishing universe.
Since p-books are a more convenient medium then e-books - they will prevail in any straightforward "medium replacement" or "medium displacement" battle.
In other words, if publishers will persist in the simple and straightforward conversion of p-books to e-books - then e-books are doomed. They are simply inferior and cannot offer the comfort, tactile delights, browseability and scanability of p-books.
But e-books - being digital - open up a vista of hitherto neglected possibilities. These will only be enhanced and enriched by the introduction of e-paper and e-ink. Among them:
* Hyperlinks within the e-book and without it - to web content, reference works, etc.
* Embedded instant shopping and ordering links
* Divergent, user-interactive, decision driven plotlines
* Interaction with other e-books (using a wireless standard) - collaborative authoring or reading groups
* Interaction with other e-books - gaming and community activities
* Automatically or periodically updated content
* Multimedia
* Database, Favourites, Annotations, and History Maintenance (archival records of reading habits, shopping habits, interaction with other readers, plot related decisions and much more)
* Automatic and embedded audio conversion and translation capabilities
* Full wireless piconetworking and scatternetworking capabilities
The technology is still not fully there. Wars rage in both the wireless and the ebook realms. Platforms compete. Standards clash. Gurus debate. But convergence is inevitable and with it the e-book of the future.
G. The Archive Function
The Internet is also the world's biggest cemetery: tens of thousands of deadbeat sites, still accessible - the "Ghost Sites" of this electronic frontier.
This, in a way, is collective memory. One of the Internet's main functions will be to preserve and transfer knowledge through time. It is called "memory" in biology - and "archive" in library science. The history of the Internet is being documented by search engines (Google) and specialized services (Alexa) alike.
3. The Internet as a Collective Nervous System
Drawing a comparison from the development of a human infant - the human race has just commenced to develop its neural system.
The Internet fulfils all the functions of the Nervous System in the body and is, both functionally and structurally, pretty similar. It is decentralized, redundant (each part can serve as functional backup in case of malfunction). It hosts information which is accessible through various paths, it contains a memory function, it is multimodal (multimedia - textual, visual, audio and animation).
I believe that the comparison is not superficial and that studying the functions of the brain (from infancy to adulthood) is likely to shed light on the future of the Net itself. The Net - exactly like the nervous system - provides pathways for the transport of goods and services - but also of memes and information, their processing, modeling, and integration.
A. The Collective Computer
Carrying the metaphor of "a collective brain" further, we would expect the processing of information to take place on the Internet, rather than inside the end-user’s hardware (the same way that information is processed in the brain, not in the eyes). Desktops will receive results and communicate with the Net to receive additional clarifications and instructions and to convey information gathered from their environment (mostly, from the user).
Put differently:
In future, servers will contain not only information (as they do today) - but also software applications. The user of an application will not be forced to buy it. He will not be driven into hardware-related expenditures to accommodate the ever growing size of applications. He will not find himself wasting his scarce memory and computing resources on passive storage. Instead, he will use a browser to call a central computer. This computer will contain the needed software, broken to its elements (=applets, small applications). Anytime the user wishes to use one of the functions of the application, he will siphon it off the central computer. When finished - he will "return" it. Processing speeds and response times will be such that the user will not feel at all that he is not interacting with his own software (the question of ownership will be very blurred). This technology is available and it provoked a heated debated about the future shape of the computing industry as a whole (desktops - really power packs - or network computers, a little more than dumb terminals). Access to online applications are already offered to corporate users by ASPs (Application Service Providers).
In the last few years, scientists have harnessed the combined power of online PC's to perform astounding feats of distributed parallel processing. Millions of PCs connected to the net co-process signals from outer space, meteorological data, and solve complex equations. This is a prime example of a collective brain in action.
B. The Intranet - a Logical Extension of the Collective Computer
LANs (Local Area Networks) are no longer a rarity in corporate offices. WANs (wide Area Networks) are used to connect geographically dispersed organs of the same legal entity (branches of a bank, daughter companies of a conglomerate, a sales force). Many LANs and WANs are going wireless.
The wireless intranet/extranet and LANs are the wave of the future. They will gradually eliminate their fixed line counterparts. The Internet offers equal, platform-independent, location-independent and time of day - independent access to corporate memory and nervous system. Sophisticated firewall security applications protect the privacy and confidentiality of the intranet from all but the most determined and savvy crackers.
The Intranet is an inter-organizational communication network, constructed on the platform of the Internet and it, therefore, enjoys all its advantages. The extranet is open to clients and suppliers as well.
The company's server can be accessed by anyone authorized, from anywhere, at any time (with local - rather than international - communication costs). The user can leave messages (internal e-mail or v-mail), access information - proprietary or public - from it, and participate in "virtual teamwork" (see next chapter).
The development of measures to safeguard server routed inter-organizational communication (firewalls) is the solution to one of two obstacles to the institutionalization of Intranets. The second problem is the limited bandwidth which does not permit the efficient transfer of audio (not to mention video).
It is difficult to conduct video conferencing through the Internet. Even the voices of discussants who use internet phones (IP telephony) come out (though very slightly) distorted.
All this did not prevent 95% of the Fortune 1000 from installing intranet. 82% of the rest intend to install one by the end of this year. Medium to big size American firms have 50-100 intranet terminals per every internet one.
One of the greatest advantages of the intranet is the ability to transfer documents between the various parts of an organization. Consider Visa: it pushed 2 million documents per day internally in 1996.
An organization equipped with an intranet can (while protected by firewalls) give its clients or suppliers access to non-classified correspondence, or inventory systems. Many B2B exchanges and industry-specific purchasing management systems are based on extranets.
C. The Transport of Information - Mail and Chat
The Internet (its e-mail function) is eroding traditional mail. 90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail from time to time and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion messages traverse the internet daily.
E-mail applications are available as freeware and are included in all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely assimilated what used to be a separate service, to the extent that many people make the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature of the Internet.
The internet will do to phone calls what it has done to mail. Already there are applications (Intel’s, Vocaltec’s, Net2Phone) which enable the user to conduct a phone conversation through his computer. The voice quality has improved. The discussants can cut into each others words, argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today, the parties (two or more) engaging in the conversation must possess the same software and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near future, computer-to-regular phone applications will eliminate this requirement. And, again, simultaneous multi-modality: the user can talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail, receive messages and transfer documents - without obstructing the flow of the conversation.
The cost of transferring voice will become so negligible that free voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years. Data traffic will overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.
The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of the parties will be represented by an "avatar", a 3-D figurine generated by the application (or the user's likeness mapped and superimposed on the the avatar). These figurines will be multi-dimensional: they will possess their own communication patterns, special habits, history, preferences - in short: their own "personality".
Thus, they will be able to maintain an "identity" and a consistent pattern of communication which they will develop over time.
Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide visitors, all the time bearing their preferences in its electronic "mind". It could narrate the news, like the digital anchor "Ananova" does. Visiting sites in the future is bound to be a much more pleasant affair.
D. The Transport of Value - E-cash
In 1996, four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure payments through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed to mushroom to $25 billion by 2003. Site owners will be able to collect rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided within the site. Amazon instituted an honour system to collect donations from visitors. PayPal provides millions of users with cash substitutes. Gradually, the Internet will compete with central banks and banking systems in money creation and transfer.
E. The Transport of Interactions - The Virtual Organization
The Internet allows for simultaneous communication and the efficient transfer of multimedia (video included) files between an unlimited number of users. This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are the real core of the Internet revolution: the virtual collaborative ("Follow the Sun") modes.
Examples:
A group of musicians is able to compose music or play it - while spatially and temporally separated;
Advertising agencies are able to co-produce ad campaigns in a real time interaction;
Cinema and TV films are produced from disparate geographical spots through the teamwork of people who never meet, except through the Net.
These examples illustrate the concept of the "virtual community". Space and time will no longer hinder team collaboration, be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or an ad hoc arrangement for the provision of a service (a virtual law firm, or accounting office, or a virtual consultancy network). The intranet can also be thought of as a "virtual organization", or a "virtual business".
The virtual mall and the virtual catalogue are prime examples of spatial and temporal liberation.
In 1998, there were well over 300 active virtual malls on the Internet. In 2000, they were frequented by 46 million shoppers, who shopped in them for goods and services.
The virtual mall is an Internet "space" (pages) wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes through a virtual "gate" or storefront and examines the merchandise on offer, until he reaches a buying decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a credit card), buys the product, and waits for it to arrive by mail (or downloads it).
The manufacturers of digital products (intellectual property such as e-books or software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line, as file downloads. Yet, slow communications speeds, competing file formats and reader standards, and limited bandwidth - constrain the growth potential of this mode of sale. Once resolved - intellectual property will be sold directly from the Net, on-line. Until such time, the mediation of the Post Office is still required. As long as this is the state of the art, the virtual mall is nothing but a glorified computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, the only difference being the exceptionally varied inventory.
Websites which started as "specialty stores" are fast transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls. Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other virtual businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many other products. It started as a bookstore.
This contrasts with a much more creative idea: the virtual catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is fitted with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is updated daily: the variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer preferences, and goods in transit) - and prices (sales, discounts, package deals) change in real time. Amazon has incorporated many of these features on its web site. The user enters its web site and there delineates his consumption profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue is immediately generated for him including specific recommendations. The history of his purchases, preferences and responses to feedback questionnaires is accumulated in a database. This intellectual property may well be Amazon's main asset.
There is no technological obstacles to implementing this vision today - only administrative and legal (patent) ones. Big brick and mortar retail stores are not up to processing the flood of data expected to result. They also remain highly sceptical regarding the feasibility of the new medium. And privacy issues prevent data mining or the effective collection and usage of personal data (remember the case of Amazon's "Readers' Circles").
The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet off-shoot: the "smart (shopping) agents". These are AI applications with "long memories".
They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then suggest purchases and refer to the appropriate sites, catalogues, or virtual malls.
They also provide price comparisons and the new generation cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product categories.
In the future, these agents will cover also brick and mortar retail chains and, in conjunction with wireless, location-specific services, issue a map of the branch or store closest to an address specified by the user (the default being his residence), or yielded by his GPS enabled wireless mobile or PDA. This technology can be seen in action in a few music sites on the web and is likely to be dominant with wireless internet appliances. The owner of an internet enabled (third generation) mobile phone is likely to be the target of geographically-specific marketing campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location (as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).
F. The Transport of Information - Internet News
Internet news are advantaged. They are frequently and dynamically updated (unlike static print news) and are always accessible (similar to print news), immediate and fresh.
The future will witness a form of interactive news. A special "corner" in the news Web site will accommodate "breaking news" posted by members of the the public (or corporate press releases). This will provide readers with a glimpse into the making of the news, the raw material news are made of. The same technology will be applied to interactive TVs. Content will be downloaded from the internet and displayed as an overlay on the TV screen or in a box in it. The contents downloaded will be directly connected to the TV programming. Thus, the biography and track record of a football player will be displayed during a football match and the history of a country when it gets news coverage.
4. Terra Internetica - Internet, an Unknown Continent
Laymen and experts alike talk about "sites" and "advertising space". Yet, the Internet was never compared to a new continent whose surface is infinite.
The Internet has its own real estate developers and construction companies. The real life equivalents derive their profits from the scarcity of the resource that they exploit - the Internet counterparts derive their profits from the tenants (content producers and distributors, e-tailers, and others).
Entrepreneurs bought "Internet Space" (pages, domain names, portals) and leveraged their acquisition commercially by:
* renting space out
* constructing infrastructure on their property and selling it
* providing an intelligent gateway, entry point (portal) to the rest of the internet
* selling advertising space which subsidizes the tenants (Yahoo!-Geocities, Tripod and others).
* Cybersquatting (purchasing specific domain names identical to brand names in the "real" world) and then selling the domain name to an interested party
Internet Space can be easily purchased or created. The investment is low and getting lower with the introduction of competition in the field of domain registration services and the increase in the number of top domains.
Then, infrastructure can be erected - for a shopping mall, for free home pages, for a portal, or for another purpose. It is precisely this infrastructure that the developer can later sell, lease, franchise, or rent out.
But this real estate bubble was the culmination of a long and tortuous process.
At the beginning, only members of the fringes and the avant-garde (inventors, risk assuming entrepreneurs, gamblers) invest in a new invention. No one knows to say what are the optimal uses of the invention (in other words, what is its future). Many - mostly members of the scientific and business elites - argue that there is no real need for the invention and that it substitutes a new and untried way for old and tried modes of doing the same things (so why assume the risk of investing in the unknown and the untried?)
Moreover, these criticisms are usually well-founded.
To start with, there is, indeed, no need for the new medium. A new medium invents itself - and the need for it. It also generates its own market to satisfy this newly found need.
Two prime examples of this self-recursive process are the personal computer and the compact disc.
When the PC was invented, its uses were completely unclear. Its performance was lacking, its abilities limited, it was unbearably user unfriendly. It suffered from faulty design, was absent any user comfort and ease of use and required considerable professional knowledge to operate. The worst part was that this knowledge was exclusive to the new invention (not portable). It reduced labour mobility and limited one's professional horizons. There were many gripes among workers assigned to tame the new beast. Managers regarded it at best as a nuisance.
The PC was thought of, at the beginning, as a sophisticated gaming machine, an electronic baby-sitter. It included a keyboard, so it was thought of in terms of a glorified typewriter or spreadsheet. It was used mainly as a word processor (and the outlay justified solely on these grounds). The spreadsheet was the first real PC application and it demonstrated the advantages inherent to this new machine (mainly flexibility and speed). Still, it was more of the same. A speedier sliding ruler. After all, said the unconvinced, what was the difference between this and a hand held calculator (some of them already had computing, memory and programming features)?
The PC was recognized as a medium only 30 years after it was invented with the introduction of multimedia software. All this time, the computer continued to spin off markets and secondary markets, needs and professional specialties. The talk as always was centred on how to improve on existing markets and solutions.
The Internet is the computer’s first important application. Hitherto the computer was only quantitatively different to other computing or gaming devices. Multimedia and the Internet have made it qualitatively superior, sui generis, unique.
Part of the problem was that the Internet was invented, is maintained and is operated by computer professionals. For decades these people have been conditioned to think in Olympic terms: faster, stronger, higher - not in terms of the new, the unprecedented, or the non-existent. Engineers are trained to improve - seldom to invent. With few exceptions, its creators stumbled across the Internet - it invented itself despite them.
Computer professionals (hardware and software experts alike) - are linear thinkers. The Internet is non linear and modular.
It is still the age of hackers. There is still a lot to be done in improving technological prowess and powers. But their control of the contents is waning and they are being gradually replaced by communicators, creative people, advertising executives, psychologists, venture capitalists, and the totally unpredictable masses who flock to flaunt their home pages and graphomania.
These all are attuned to the user, his mental needs and his information and entertainment preferences.
The compact disc is a different tale. It was intentionally invented to improve upon an existing technology (basically, Edison’s Gramophone). Market-wise, this was a major gamble. The improvement was, at first, debatable (many said that the sound quality of the first generation of compact discs was inferior to that of its contemporaneous record players). Consumers had to be convinced to change both software and hardware and to dish out thousands of dollars just to listen to what the manufacturers claimed was more a authentically reproduced sound. A better argument was the longer life of the software (though when contrasted with the limited life expectancy of the consumer, some of the first sales pitches sounded absolutely morbid).
The computer suffered from unclear positioning. The compact disc was very clear as to its main functions - but had a rough time convincing the consumers that it was needed.
Every medium is first controlled by the technical people. Gutenberg was a printer - not a publisher. Yet, he is the world's most famous publisher. The technical cadre is joined by dubious or small-scale entrepreneurs and, together, they establish ventures with no clear vision, market-oriented thinking, or orderly plan of action. The legislator is also dumbfounded and does not grasp what is happening - thus, there is no legislation to regulate the use of the medium. Witness the initial confusion concerning copyrighted vs. licenced software, e-books, and the copyrights of ROM embedded software. Abuse or under-utilization of resources grow. The sale of radio frequencies to the first cellular phone operators in the West - a situation which repeats itself in Eastern and Central Europe nowadays - is an example.
But then more complex transactions - exactly as in real estate in "real life" - begin to emerge. The Internet is likely to converge with "real life". It is likely to be dominated by brick and mortar entities which are likely to import their business methods and management. As its eccentric past (the dot.com boom and the dot.bomb bust) recedes - a sustainable and profitable future awaits it.
1. A Genetic Blueprint
2. A Chaotic Library
3. A Collective Nervous System
4. An Unknown Continent (Terra Internetica)
1. The Genetic Blueprint
A decade after the invention of the World Wide Web, Tim Berners-Lee is promoting the "Semantic Web". The Internet hitherto is a repository of digital content. It has a rudimentary inventory system and very crude data location services. As a sad result, most of the content is invisible and inaccessible. Moreover, the Internet manipulates strings of symbols, not logical or semantic propositions. In other words, the Net compares values but does not know the meaning of the values it thus manipulates. It is unable to interpret strings, to infer new facts, to deduce, induce, derive, or otherwise comprehend what it is doing. In short, it does not understand language. Run an ambiguous term by any search engine and these shortcomings become painfully evident. This lack of understanding of the semantic foundations of its raw material (data, information) prevent applications and databases from sharing resources and feeding each other. The Internet is discrete, not continuous. It resembles an archipelago, with users hopping from island to island in a frantic search for relevancy.
Even visionaries like Berners-Lee do not contemplate an "intelligent Web". They are simply proposing to let users, content creators, and web developers assign descriptive meta-tags ("name of hotel") to fields, or to strings of symbols ("Hilton"). These meta-tags (arranged in semantic and relational "ontologies" - lists of metatags, their meanings and how they relate to each other) will be read by various applications and allow them to process the associated strings of symbols correctly (place the word "Hilton" in your address book under "hotels"). This will make information retrieval more efficient and reliable and the information retrieved is bound to be more relevant and amenable to higher level processing (statistics, the development of heuristic rules, etc.). The shift is from HTML (whose tags are concerned with visual appearances and content indexing) to languages such as the DARPA Agent Markup Language, OIL (Ontology Inference Layer or Ontology Interchange Language), or even XML (whose tags are concerned with content taxonomy, document structure, and semantics). This would bring the Internet closer to the classic library card catalogue.
Even in its current, pre-semantic, hyperlink-dependent, phase, the Internet brings to mind Richard Dawkins' seminal work "The Selfish Gene" (OUP, 1976). This would be doubly true for the Semantic Web.
Dawkins suggested to generalize the principle of natural selection to a law of the survival of the stable. "A stable thing is a collection of atoms which is permanent enough or common enough to deserve a name". He then proceeded to describe the emergence of "Replicators" - molecules which created copies of themselves. The Replicators that survived in the competition for scarce raw materials were characterized by high longevity, fecundity, and copying-fidelity. Replicators (now known as "genes") constructed "survival machines" (organisms) to shield them from the vagaries of an ever-harsher environment.
This is very reminiscent of the Internet. The "stable things" are HTML coded web pages. They are replicators - they create copies of themselves every time their "web address" (URL) is clicked. The HTML coding of a web page can be thought of as "genetic material". It contains all the information needed to reproduce the page. And, exactly as in nature, the higher the longevity, fecundity (measured in links to the web page from other web sites), and copying-fidelity of the HTML code - the higher its chances to survive (as a web page).
Replicator molecules (DNA) and replicator HTML have one thing in common - they are both packaged information. In the appropriate context (the right biochemical "soup" in the case of DNA, the right software application in the case of HTML code) - this information generates a "survival machine" (organism, or a web page).
The Semantic Web will only increase the longevity, fecundity, and copying-fidelity or the underlying code (in this case, OIL or XML instead of HTML). By facilitating many more interactions with many other web pages and databases - the underlying "replicator" code will ensure the "survival" of "its" web page (=its survival machine). In this analogy, the web page's "DNA" (its OIL or XML code) contains "single genes" (semantic meta-tags). The whole process of life is the unfolding of a kind of Semantic Web.
In a prophetic paragraph, Dawkins described the Internet:
"The first thing to grasp about a modern replicator is that it is highly gregarious. A survival machine is a vehicle containing not just one gene but many thousands. The manufacture of a body is a cooperative venture of such intricacy that it is almost impossible to disentangle the contribution of one gene from that of another. A given gene will have many different effects on quite different parts of the body. A given part of the body will be influenced by many genes and the effect of any one gene depends on interaction with many others...In terms of the analogy, any given page of the plans makes reference to many different parts of the building; and each page makes sense only in terms of cross-reference to numerous other pages"
What Dawkins neglected in his important work is the concept of the Network. People congregate in cities, mate, and reproduce, thus providing genes with new "survival machines". But Dawkins himself suggested that the new Replicator is the "meme" - an idea, belief, technique, technology, work of art, or bit of information. Memes use human brains as "survival machines" and they hop from brain to brain and across time and space ("communications") in the process of cultural (as distinct from biological) evolution. The Internet is a latter day meme-hopping playground. But, more importantly, it is a Network. Genes move from one container to another through a linear, serial, tedious process which involves prolonged periods of one on one gene shuffling ("sex") and gestation. Memes use networks. Their propagation is, therefore, parallel, fast, and all-pervasive. The Internet is a manifestation of the growing predominance of memes over genes. And the Semantic Web may be to the Internet what Artificial Intelligence is to classic computing. We may be on the threshold of a self-aware Web.
2. The Internet as a Chaotic Library
A. The Problem of Cataloguing
The Internet is an assortment of billions of pages which contain information. Some of them are visible and others are generated from hidden databases by users' requests ("Invisible Internet").
The Internet exhibits no discernible order, classification, or categorization. Amazingly, as opposed to "classical" libraries, no one has yet invented a (sorely needed) Internet cataloguing standard (remember Dewey?). Some sites indeed apply the Dewey Decimal System to their contents (Suite101). Others default to a directory structure (Open Directory, Yahoo!, Look Smart and others).
Had such a standard existed (an agreed upon numerical cataloguing method) - each site could have self-classified. Sites would have an interest to do so to increase their visibility. This, naturally, would have eliminated the need for today's clunky, incomplete and (highly) inefficient search engines.
Thus, a site whose number starts with 900 will be immediately identified as dealing with history and multiple classification will be encouraged to allow finer cross-sections to emerge. An example of such an emerging technology of "self classification" and "self-publication" (though limited to scholarly resources) is the "Academic Resource Channel" by Scindex.
Moreover, users will not be required to remember reams of numbers. Future browsers will be akin to catalogues, very much like the applications used in modern day libraries. Compare this utopia to the current dystopy. Users struggle with mounds of irrelevant material to finally reach a partial and disappointing destination. At the same time, there likely are web sites which exactly match the poor user's needs. Yet, what currently determines the chances of a happy encounter between user and content - are the whims of the specific search engine used and things like meta-tags, headlines, a fee paid, or the right opening sentences.
B. Screen vs. Page
The computer screen, because of physical limitations (size, the fact that it has to be scrolled) fails to effectively compete with the printed page. The latter is still the most ingenious medium yet invented for the storage and release of textual information. Granted: a computer screen is better at highlighting discrete units of information. So, these differing capacities draw the battle lines: structures (printed pages) versus units (screen), the continuous and easily reversible (print) versus the discrete (screen).
The solution lies in finding an efficient way to translate computer screens to printed matter. It is hard to believe, but no such thing exists. Computer screens are still hostile to off-line printing. In other words: if a user copies information from the Internet to his word processor (or vice versa, for that matter) - he ends up with a fragmented, garbage-filled and non-aesthetic document.
Very few site developers try to do something about it - even fewer succeed.
C. Dynamic vs. Static Interactions
One of the biggest mistakes of content suppliers is that they do not provide a "static-dynamic interaction".
Internet-based content can now easily interact with other media (e.g., CD-ROMs) and with non-PC platforms (PDA's, mobile phones).
Examples abound:
A CD-ROM shopping catalogue interacts with a Web site to allow the user to order a product. The catalogue could also be updated through the site (as is the practice with CD-ROM encyclopedias). The advantages of the CD-ROM are clear: very fast access time (dozens of times faster than the access to a Web site using a dial up connection) and a data storage capacity hundreds of times bigger than the average Web page.
Another example:
A PDA plug-in disposable chip containing hundreds of advertisements or a "yellow pages". The consumer selects the ad or entry that she wants to see and connects to the Internet to view a relevant video. She could then also have an interactive chat (or a conference) with a salesperson, receive information about the company, about the ad, about the advertising agency which created the ad - and so on.
CD-ROM based encyclopedias (such as the Britannica, or the Encarta) already contain hyperlinks which carry the user to sites selected by an Editorial Board.
Note
CD-ROMs are probably a doomed medium. Storage capacity continually increases exponentially and, within a year, desktops with 80 Gb hard disks will be a common sight. Moreover, the much heralded Network Computer - the stripped down version of the personal computer - will put at the disposal of the average user terabytes in storage capacity and the processing power of a supercomputer. What separates computer users from this utopia is the communication bandwidth. With the introduction of radio and satellite broadband services, DSL and ADSL, cable modems coupled with advanced compression standards - video (on demand), audio and data will be available speedily and plentifully.
The CD-ROM, on the other hand, is not mobile. It requires installation and the utilization of sophisticated hardware and software. This is no user friendly push technology. It is nerd-oriented. As a result, CD-ROMs are not an immediate medium. There is a long time lapse between the moment of purchase and the moment the user accesses the data. Compare this to a book or a magazine. Data in these oldest of media is instantly available to the user and they allow for easy and accurate "back" and "forward" functions.
Perhaps the biggest mistake of CD-ROM manufacturers has been their inability to offer an integrated hardware and software package. CD-ROMs are not compact. A Walkman is a compact hardware-cum-software package. It is easily transportable, it is thin, it contains numerous, user-friendly, sophisticated functions, it provides immediate access to data. So does the discman, or the MP3-man, or the new generation of e-books (e.g., E-Ink's). This cannot be said about the CD-ROM. By tying its future to the obsolete concept of stand-alone, expensive, inefficient and technologically unreliable personal computers - CD-ROMs have sentenced themselves to oblivion (with the possible exception of reference material).
D. Online Reference
A visit to the on-line Encyclopaedia Britannica demonstrates some of the tremendous, mind boggling possibilities of online reference - as well as some of the obstacles.
Each entry in this mammoth work of reference is hyperlinked to relevant Web sites. The sites are carefully screened. Links are available to data in various forms, including audio and video. Everything can be copied to the hard disk or to a R/W CD.
This is a new conception of a knowledge centre - not just a heap of material. The content is modular and continuously enriched. It can be linked to a voice Q&A centre. Queries by subscribers can be answered by e-mail, by fax, posted on the site, hard copies can be sent by post. This "Trivial Pursuit" or "homework" service could be very popular - there is considerable appetite for "Just in Time Information". The Library of Congress - together with a few other libraries - is in the process of making just such a service available to the public (CDRS - Collaborative Digital Reference Service).
E. Derivative Content
The Internet is an enormous reservoir of archives of freely accessible, or even public domain, information.
With a minimal investment, this information can be gathered into coherent, theme oriented, cheap compilations (on CD-ROMs, print, e-books or other media).
F. E-Publishing
The Internet is by far the world's largest publishing platform. It incorporates FAQs (Q&A's regarding almost every technical matter in the world), e-zines (electronic magazines), the electronic versions of print dailies and periodicals (in conjunction with on-line news and information services), reference material, e-books, monographs, articles, minutes of discussions ("threads"), conference proceedings, and much more besides.
The Internet represents major advantages to publishers. Consider the electronic version of a p-zine.
Publishing an e-zine promotes the sales of the printed edition, it helps sign on subscribers and it leads to the sale of advertising space. The electronic archive function (see next section) saves the need to file back issues, the physical space required to do so and the irritating search for data items.
The future trend is a combined subscription to both the electronic edition (mainly for the archival value and the ability to hyperlink to additional information) and to the print one (easier to browse the current issue). The Economist is already offering free access to its electronic archives as an inducement to its print subscribers.
The electronic daily presents other advantages:
It allows for immediate feedback and for flowing, almost real-time, communication between writers and readers. The electronic version, therefore, acquires a gyroscopic function: a navigation instrument, always indicating deviations from the "right" course. The content can be instantly updated and breaking news incorporated in older content.
Specialty hand held devices already allow for downloading and storage of vast quantities of data (up to 4000 print pages). The user gains access to libraries containing hundreds of texts, adapted to be downloaded, stored and read by the specific device. Again, a convergence of standards is to be expected in this field as well (the final contenders will probably be Adobe's PDF against Microsoft's MS-Reader).
Currently, e-books are dichotomously treated either as:
Continuation of print books (p-books) by other means, or as a whole new publishing universe.
Since p-books are a more convenient medium then e-books - they will prevail in any straightforward "medium replacement" or "medium displacement" battle.
In other words, if publishers will persist in the simple and straightforward conversion of p-books to e-books - then e-books are doomed. They are simply inferior and cannot offer the comfort, tactile delights, browseability and scanability of p-books.
But e-books - being digital - open up a vista of hitherto neglected possibilities. These will only be enhanced and enriched by the introduction of e-paper and e-ink. Among them:
* Hyperlinks within the e-book and without it - to web content, reference works, etc.
* Embedded instant shopping and ordering links
* Divergent, user-interactive, decision driven plotlines
* Interaction with other e-books (using a wireless standard) - collaborative authoring or reading groups
* Interaction with other e-books - gaming and community activities
* Automatically or periodically updated content
* Multimedia
* Database, Favourites, Annotations, and History Maintenance (archival records of reading habits, shopping habits, interaction with other readers, plot related decisions and much more)
* Automatic and embedded audio conversion and translation capabilities
* Full wireless piconetworking and scatternetworking capabilities
The technology is still not fully there. Wars rage in both the wireless and the ebook realms. Platforms compete. Standards clash. Gurus debate. But convergence is inevitable and with it the e-book of the future.
G. The Archive Function
The Internet is also the world's biggest cemetery: tens of thousands of deadbeat sites, still accessible - the "Ghost Sites" of this electronic frontier.
This, in a way, is collective memory. One of the Internet's main functions will be to preserve and transfer knowledge through time. It is called "memory" in biology - and "archive" in library science. The history of the Internet is being documented by search engines (Google) and specialized services (Alexa) alike.
3. The Internet as a Collective Nervous System
Drawing a comparison from the development of a human infant - the human race has just commenced to develop its neural system.
The Internet fulfils all the functions of the Nervous System in the body and is, both functionally and structurally, pretty similar. It is decentralized, redundant (each part can serve as functional backup in case of malfunction). It hosts information which is accessible through various paths, it contains a memory function, it is multimodal (multimedia - textual, visual, audio and animation).
I believe that the comparison is not superficial and that studying the functions of the brain (from infancy to adulthood) is likely to shed light on the future of the Net itself. The Net - exactly like the nervous system - provides pathways for the transport of goods and services - but also of memes and information, their processing, modeling, and integration.
A. The Collective Computer
Carrying the metaphor of "a collective brain" further, we would expect the processing of information to take place on the Internet, rather than inside the end-user’s hardware (the same way that information is processed in the brain, not in the eyes). Desktops will receive results and communicate with the Net to receive additional clarifications and instructions and to convey information gathered from their environment (mostly, from the user).
Put differently:
In future, servers will contain not only information (as they do today) - but also software applications. The user of an application will not be forced to buy it. He will not be driven into hardware-related expenditures to accommodate the ever growing size of applications. He will not find himself wasting his scarce memory and computing resources on passive storage. Instead, he will use a browser to call a central computer. This computer will contain the needed software, broken to its elements (=applets, small applications). Anytime the user wishes to use one of the functions of the application, he will siphon it off the central computer. When finished - he will "return" it. Processing speeds and response times will be such that the user will not feel at all that he is not interacting with his own software (the question of ownership will be very blurred). This technology is available and it provoked a heated debated about the future shape of the computing industry as a whole (desktops - really power packs - or network computers, a little more than dumb terminals). Access to online applications are already offered to corporate users by ASPs (Application Service Providers).
In the last few years, scientists have harnessed the combined power of online PC's to perform astounding feats of distributed parallel processing. Millions of PCs connected to the net co-process signals from outer space, meteorological data, and solve complex equations. This is a prime example of a collective brain in action.
B. The Intranet - a Logical Extension of the Collective Computer
LANs (Local Area Networks) are no longer a rarity in corporate offices. WANs (wide Area Networks) are used to connect geographically dispersed organs of the same legal entity (branches of a bank, daughter companies of a conglomerate, a sales force). Many LANs and WANs are going wireless.
The wireless intranet/extranet and LANs are the wave of the future. They will gradually eliminate their fixed line counterparts. The Internet offers equal, platform-independent, location-independent and time of day - independent access to corporate memory and nervous system. Sophisticated firewall security applications protect the privacy and confidentiality of the intranet from all but the most determined and savvy crackers.
The Intranet is an inter-organizational communication network, constructed on the platform of the Internet and it, therefore, enjoys all its advantages. The extranet is open to clients and suppliers as well.
The company's server can be accessed by anyone authorized, from anywhere, at any time (with local - rather than international - communication costs). The user can leave messages (internal e-mail or v-mail), access information - proprietary or public - from it, and participate in "virtual teamwork" (see next chapter).
The development of measures to safeguard server routed inter-organizational communication (firewalls) is the solution to one of two obstacles to the institutionalization of Intranets. The second problem is the limited bandwidth which does not permit the efficient transfer of audio (not to mention video).
It is difficult to conduct video conferencing through the Internet. Even the voices of discussants who use internet phones (IP telephony) come out (though very slightly) distorted.
All this did not prevent 95% of the Fortune 1000 from installing intranet. 82% of the rest intend to install one by the end of this year. Medium to big size American firms have 50-100 intranet terminals per every internet one.
One of the greatest advantages of the intranet is the ability to transfer documents between the various parts of an organization. Consider Visa: it pushed 2 million documents per day internally in 1996.
An organization equipped with an intranet can (while protected by firewalls) give its clients or suppliers access to non-classified correspondence, or inventory systems. Many B2B exchanges and industry-specific purchasing management systems are based on extranets.
C. The Transport of Information - Mail and Chat
The Internet (its e-mail function) is eroding traditional mail. 90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail from time to time and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion messages traverse the internet daily.
E-mail applications are available as freeware and are included in all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely assimilated what used to be a separate service, to the extent that many people make the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature of the Internet.
The internet will do to phone calls what it has done to mail. Already there are applications (Intel’s, Vocaltec’s, Net2Phone) which enable the user to conduct a phone conversation through his computer. The voice quality has improved. The discussants can cut into each others words, argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today, the parties (two or more) engaging in the conversation must possess the same software and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near future, computer-to-regular phone applications will eliminate this requirement. And, again, simultaneous multi-modality: the user can talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail, receive messages and transfer documents - without obstructing the flow of the conversation.
The cost of transferring voice will become so negligible that free voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years. Data traffic will overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.
The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of the parties will be represented by an "avatar", a 3-D figurine generated by the application (or the user's likeness mapped and superimposed on the the avatar). These figurines will be multi-dimensional: they will possess their own communication patterns, special habits, history, preferences - in short: their own "personality".
Thus, they will be able to maintain an "identity" and a consistent pattern of communication which they will develop over time.
Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide visitors, all the time bearing their preferences in its electronic "mind". It could narrate the news, like the digital anchor "Ananova" does. Visiting sites in the future is bound to be a much more pleasant affair.
D. The Transport of Value - E-cash
In 1996, four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure payments through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed to mushroom to $25 billion by 2003. Site owners will be able to collect rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided within the site. Amazon instituted an honour system to collect donations from visitors. PayPal provides millions of users with cash substitutes. Gradually, the Internet will compete with central banks and banking systems in money creation and transfer.
E. The Transport of Interactions - The Virtual Organization
The Internet allows for simultaneous communication and the efficient transfer of multimedia (video included) files between an unlimited number of users. This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are the real core of the Internet revolution: the virtual collaborative ("Follow the Sun") modes.
Examples:
A group of musicians is able to compose music or play it - while spatially and temporally separated;
Advertising agencies are able to co-produce ad campaigns in a real time interaction;
Cinema and TV films are produced from disparate geographical spots through the teamwork of people who never meet, except through the Net.
These examples illustrate the concept of the "virtual community". Space and time will no longer hinder team collaboration, be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or an ad hoc arrangement for the provision of a service (a virtual law firm, or accounting office, or a virtual consultancy network). The intranet can also be thought of as a "virtual organization", or a "virtual business".
The virtual mall and the virtual catalogue are prime examples of spatial and temporal liberation.
In 1998, there were well over 300 active virtual malls on the Internet. In 2000, they were frequented by 46 million shoppers, who shopped in them for goods and services.
The virtual mall is an Internet "space" (pages) wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes through a virtual "gate" or storefront and examines the merchandise on offer, until he reaches a buying decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a credit card), buys the product, and waits for it to arrive by mail (or downloads it).
The manufacturers of digital products (intellectual property such as e-books or software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line, as file downloads. Yet, slow communications speeds, competing file formats and reader standards, and limited bandwidth - constrain the growth potential of this mode of sale. Once resolved - intellectual property will be sold directly from the Net, on-line. Until such time, the mediation of the Post Office is still required. As long as this is the state of the art, the virtual mall is nothing but a glorified computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, the only difference being the exceptionally varied inventory.
Websites which started as "specialty stores" are fast transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls. Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other virtual businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many other products. It started as a bookstore.
This contrasts with a much more creative idea: the virtual catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is fitted with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is updated daily: the variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer preferences, and goods in transit) - and prices (sales, discounts, package deals) change in real time. Amazon has incorporated many of these features on its web site. The user enters its web site and there delineates his consumption profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue is immediately generated for him including specific recommendations. The history of his purchases, preferences and responses to feedback questionnaires is accumulated in a database. This intellectual property may well be Amazon's main asset.
There is no technological obstacles to implementing this vision today - only administrative and legal (patent) ones. Big brick and mortar retail stores are not up to processing the flood of data expected to result. They also remain highly sceptical regarding the feasibility of the new medium. And privacy issues prevent data mining or the effective collection and usage of personal data (remember the case of Amazon's "Readers' Circles").
The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet off-shoot: the "smart (shopping) agents". These are AI applications with "long memories".
They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then suggest purchases and refer to the appropriate sites, catalogues, or virtual malls.
They also provide price comparisons and the new generation cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product categories.
In the future, these agents will cover also brick and mortar retail chains and, in conjunction with wireless, location-specific services, issue a map of the branch or store closest to an address specified by the user (the default being his residence), or yielded by his GPS enabled wireless mobile or PDA. This technology can be seen in action in a few music sites on the web and is likely to be dominant with wireless internet appliances. The owner of an internet enabled (third generation) mobile phone is likely to be the target of geographically-specific marketing campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location (as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).
F. The Transport of Information - Internet News
Internet news are advantaged. They are frequently and dynamically updated (unlike static print news) and are always accessible (similar to print news), immediate and fresh.
The future will witness a form of interactive news. A special "corner" in the news Web site will accommodate "breaking news" posted by members of the the public (or corporate press releases). This will provide readers with a glimpse into the making of the news, the raw material news are made of. The same technology will be applied to interactive TVs. Content will be downloaded from the internet and displayed as an overlay on the TV screen or in a box in it. The contents downloaded will be directly connected to the TV programming. Thus, the biography and track record of a football player will be displayed during a football match and the history of a country when it gets news coverage.
4. Terra Internetica - Internet, an Unknown Continent
Laymen and experts alike talk about "sites" and "advertising space". Yet, the Internet was never compared to a new continent whose surface is infinite.
The Internet has its own real estate developers and construction companies. The real life equivalents derive their profits from the scarcity of the resource that they exploit - the Internet counterparts derive their profits from the tenants (content producers and distributors, e-tailers, and others).
Entrepreneurs bought "Internet Space" (pages, domain names, portals) and leveraged their acquisition commercially by:
* renting space out
* constructing infrastructure on their property and selling it
* providing an intelligent gateway, entry point (portal) to the rest of the internet
* selling advertising space which subsidizes the tenants (Yahoo!-Geocities, Tripod and others).
* Cybersquatting (purchasing specific domain names identical to brand names in the "real" world) and then selling the domain name to an interested party
Internet Space can be easily purchased or created. The investment is low and getting lower with the introduction of competition in the field of domain registration services and the increase in the number of top domains.
Then, infrastructure can be erected - for a shopping mall, for free home pages, for a portal, or for another purpose. It is precisely this infrastructure that the developer can later sell, lease, franchise, or rent out.
But this real estate bubble was the culmination of a long and tortuous process.
At the beginning, only members of the fringes and the avant-garde (inventors, risk assuming entrepreneurs, gamblers) invest in a new invention. No one knows to say what are the optimal uses of the invention (in other words, what is its future). Many - mostly members of the scientific and business elites - argue that there is no real need for the invention and that it substitutes a new and untried way for old and tried modes of doing the same things (so why assume the risk of investing in the unknown and the untried?)
Moreover, these criticisms are usually well-founded.
To start with, there is, indeed, no need for the new medium. A new medium invents itself - and the need for it. It also generates its own market to satisfy this newly found need.
Two prime examples of this self-recursive process are the personal computer and the compact disc.
When the PC was invented, its uses were completely unclear. Its performance was lacking, its abilities limited, it was unbearably user unfriendly. It suffered from faulty design, was absent any user comfort and ease of use and required considerable professional knowledge to operate. The worst part was that this knowledge was exclusive to the new invention (not portable). It reduced labour mobility and limited one's professional horizons. There were many gripes among workers assigned to tame the new beast. Managers regarded it at best as a nuisance.
The PC was thought of, at the beginning, as a sophisticated gaming machine, an electronic baby-sitter. It included a keyboard, so it was thought of in terms of a glorified typewriter or spreadsheet. It was used mainly as a word processor (and the outlay justified solely on these grounds). The spreadsheet was the first real PC application and it demonstrated the advantages inherent to this new machine (mainly flexibility and speed). Still, it was more of the same. A speedier sliding ruler. After all, said the unconvinced, what was the difference between this and a hand held calculator (some of them already had computing, memory and programming features)?
The PC was recognized as a medium only 30 years after it was invented with the introduction of multimedia software. All this time, the computer continued to spin off markets and secondary markets, needs and professional specialties. The talk as always was centred on how to improve on existing markets and solutions.
The Internet is the computer’s first important application. Hitherto the computer was only quantitatively different to other computing or gaming devices. Multimedia and the Internet have made it qualitatively superior, sui generis, unique.
Part of the problem was that the Internet was invented, is maintained and is operated by computer professionals. For decades these people have been conditioned to think in Olympic terms: faster, stronger, higher - not in terms of the new, the unprecedented, or the non-existent. Engineers are trained to improve - seldom to invent. With few exceptions, its creators stumbled across the Internet - it invented itself despite them.
Computer professionals (hardware and software experts alike) - are linear thinkers. The Internet is non linear and modular.
It is still the age of hackers. There is still a lot to be done in improving technological prowess and powers. But their control of the contents is waning and they are being gradually replaced by communicators, creative people, advertising executives, psychologists, venture capitalists, and the totally unpredictable masses who flock to flaunt their home pages and graphomania.
These all are attuned to the user, his mental needs and his information and entertainment preferences.
The compact disc is a different tale. It was intentionally invented to improve upon an existing technology (basically, Edison’s Gramophone). Market-wise, this was a major gamble. The improvement was, at first, debatable (many said that the sound quality of the first generation of compact discs was inferior to that of its contemporaneous record players). Consumers had to be convinced to change both software and hardware and to dish out thousands of dollars just to listen to what the manufacturers claimed was more a authentically reproduced sound. A better argument was the longer life of the software (though when contrasted with the limited life expectancy of the consumer, some of the first sales pitches sounded absolutely morbid).
The computer suffered from unclear positioning. The compact disc was very clear as to its main functions - but had a rough time convincing the consumers that it was needed.
Every medium is first controlled by the technical people. Gutenberg was a printer - not a publisher. Yet, he is the world's most famous publisher. The technical cadre is joined by dubious or small-scale entrepreneurs and, together, they establish ventures with no clear vision, market-oriented thinking, or orderly plan of action. The legislator is also dumbfounded and does not grasp what is happening - thus, there is no legislation to regulate the use of the medium. Witness the initial confusion concerning copyrighted vs. licenced software, e-books, and the copyrights of ROM embedded software. Abuse or under-utilization of resources grow. The sale of radio frequencies to the first cellular phone operators in the West - a situation which repeats itself in Eastern and Central Europe nowadays - is an example.
But then more complex transactions - exactly as in real estate in "real life" - begin to emerge. The Internet is likely to converge with "real life". It is likely to be dominated by brick and mortar entities which are likely to import their business methods and management. As its eccentric past (the dot.com boom and the dot.bomb bust) recedes - a sustainable and profitable future awaits it.
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